kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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Same here. I had the towel in hand after last night's runs and have officially tossed it now at least for the big snows. It looks like a 3-6 thump is likely for the immediate metro depending on where you're located, probably closer to 6 for you.
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Meh, it's not even officially winter yet so I wouldn't call this crushing but, yes, it sucks after tracking this for 5 days and losing sleep in the process waiting for the Euro to make or break our night.
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Perhaps enough laughs to take the weenies off the ledge of the bridge.... until the Ukie brings them right back.
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Sick minds think alike. That was my initial thought too haha
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What is that based on? I know every storm is different but once the north trend starts on all models within a couple of days of the event, I don't ever recall those trends reversing.
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The GFS trending north eventually was as predictable as Anthony hoping for a blizzard.
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For now but this seems like the beginning of a trend towards the other guidance so I doubt it's done trending north. I'd expect the Ukie and Euro to follow suit. The trends are undeniable.
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That's fair and I agree wholeheartedly with the whining which I kind of did in my last post.
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With all due respect, a lot of folks in this forum do live around the NYC area so what should we talk about?
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100%. Such is life on the coast where EVERYTHING has to align perfectly to get the big snows. Just another example of how utterly spoiled we were in the 2000s and even first half of the 2010s when 12+ inch storms were almost an annual occurrence, even several times a year. As disappointing as it is considering the way it looked a few days ago, 4-8 inches is a really good storm for us. Who knows, it might be the biggest storm of the year for us coasties.
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It's not jumping ship. The trends have moved away from big snows at the coast, it's not just one run. As I said last night, this is looking like a quick 4-8 inch thump around the city then dryslot or switch to sleet or drizzle. The forecasted 12+ inch amounts seem highly unrealistic unless you're 30-50 miles north of the city.
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The trends are obvious. This is an interior snowstorm and likely one of those 4-8 inch front end thump to snizzle type deals at the coast, seen it happen many times. GFS will correct towards the other models, as usual.
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I think the GFS is out to lunch. The Nam, rgem, CMC and ukie all seem to be focusing on moving the heaviest snow further north. Looking more and more like warmer air and/or a dry slot cutting down on the totals at the coast after a good initial thump. 12-18 seems like a bit of a pipedream for the city now if trends continue. Watch the Euro come up with a different solution now to throw it all out of whack just when it looks like a consensus starting to form.
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The dry slot and warm tongue on becoming more prominent on some of the short range models with the jackpot moving further north. Still a good thump of snow but the trends are a little concerning. The Euro will be telling. Need it to hold serve. Any further shifts north and the GFS is starting to look like an outlier.
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Not good trends for those of us near the coast tonight outside of the GFS, good for the LHV and northeast PA. If the Euro shifts north tonight, could be trouble.
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Models aren't converging on anything. The Nam and rgem are drastically different than the GFS and the Euro somewhere in between.
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The GFS was always going to correct north, this is windshield wiper stuff. The 18z models are always wonky anyway, the 0z suite will be more telling.
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March 2018 was a big fat tease in my neck of the woods. Historic storms all over the place but here, north, west, east, south. January 2016 was the last 12+ incher here in Whitestone and for most of us in the immediate NYC area.
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I'd be shocked if the GFS didn't correct north somewhat. We'll see...
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Yeah, I suppose it has been pretty consistent with the suppressed look but it's a big outlier and I've seen many times when the gfs has been suppressed only to correct north towards the other models as the event nears. When was the last time the gfs scored a coup for a major event when it was the lone outlier?
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The GFS almost always plays catch up in big events like this and has at least one run that's an outlier closer to the event. I wouldn't put much stock into it and will bet anything that it will bump north eventually.
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Hoo Boy. That rgem should wake up some weenies.
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I've always said that suppression is the biggest concern, that confluence means business. Even in the city, I'd be a bit concerned about a whiff south. Folks up north should definitely be concerned.
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Jeez, that Ukie is a Nukee.