kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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It would be the ultimate Charlie Brown and/or kick in the nuts if we can't cash in on this pattern. Not like it's pinning our hopes on one storm so there's multiple chances. I'm always skeptical until we can hone in on a consensus roughly 3 days out but it's hard not to get at least a little excited by the possibilities.
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SWFEs rarely work out at the coast. Be happy with a few inches that don't get washed away immediately.
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I fully expected an inch of slop and that's exactly what it is so I don't see this as an underperformer, the models always underestimate the warm tongue.
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Maybe it's just me but I can't get excited about possibilities a week to week and a half from now especially with such a parade of storms with one effecting the next, lots of volatility. Just too much has to go right to get real snowstorms here. Within 3 days with a snow depiction and that'll get my attention.
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Same, I know the snow totals haven't been high but this is the most wintry winter has felt in a long while with these smaller fluffy snow events and the cold keeping it around for a while also with a White Christmas thrown in there so it's been a good winter thus far IMO.
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The worst and the models always underestimate the warm layer. This is a typical 1-2 inch slopfest that will get washed away deal at the coast as opposed to these cold 1-2 inch snows that we've been getting this winter prior that have stuck around for the most part. These are NYC suburb and New England events generally.
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It's almost a different climate at times on the North Shore in marginal events like this.
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Stopped for a bit now moderate snow with big flakes, about an inch and a half here with everything covered. Nice surprise
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Definitely more than I was expecting, it's really slick out there on the roads. Will try to send pics later
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Are we in April already? Wish somebody told me.
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Crazy how people can dismiss an entire mid winter month like 10 days before it even starts. There's been plenty of times when long range forecasts didn't pan out and now the next month and a half is done for snow? Just silly
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No chance, it's moving too quickly. 2-4 is a safe bet, looks really nice outside regardless.
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Heaviest snow of the day here. Finally getting that snow globe look
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Snowing hard in Philly, I suppose this is a good sign for us.
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Some bigger flakes finally but it's nothing but wet out here so far
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Looks like barely anything in Philly, don't think that bodes well for us but we'll see.
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Very light, very wet snow here. I know it's going to wet blub eventually but I wonder if some of the projected totals near the city and out east might be a little too high due to losing some accumulations because of warm temps at the onset. I think the lower end of the 3-6 inch forecast is realistic.
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The rgem was way more wrong than the other models. It was still holding on to an inland runner just yesterday, the only model showing anything close to that solution. The Canadians took a major L on this one.
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As a diehard Lions fan I sadly remember that game all too well but that's in the distant past, time to beat those Commandos tonight.
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And with perhaps some more snow opportunities in the next week or two. Kind of like a mini '13-'14 stretch, one of my favorite all time winters.
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I lean way towards the euro/ukie combo than the Canadian combo but a blend of them is usually the way to go when there's such a split. It does seem like the cmc is an outlier but I don't think it can be discounted entirely either.
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Why does it have to be one model wrong or the other? More than likely the actual solution will fall somewhere in the middle.
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The Rgem still being amped is concerning, getting into the range where it's becoming more reliable and I still can't get out of my head that Forky was leaning towards the rain solution.
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I'm not saying it's likely but I wouldn't discount it either. We've seen scenarios where last minute shifts from a consensus move to a model that wasn't consensus, it's rare but it's happened before. With that said, a blend of the models is a reasonable forecast which puts us in a decent spot.
