
kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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All clown maps are ridiculous and I'm not sure why anybody puts much stock into them. Pay attention to the upper level evolution, not the clown maps.
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OBs and nowcast later Tuesday morning - Noon Wednesday 1/26-27
kat5hurricane replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Some fatties coming down in Midtown. It looks like it should be out of here pretty quickly. -
The wind has been gusty all evening and been roaring the last few hours especially once the rain hit around an hour ago. Oh and Merry Christmas to everybody.
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
kat5hurricane replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Light to moderate snow, this has been a pleasant surprise. Must be approaching 10" in Whitestone. I might have to clean off the car for a third time but I really don't mind.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
kat5hurricane replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
That was interesting. I dug out my car around midnight thinking that most of the snow was done then woke up this morning to see another 3-4 inches accumulated and had to dig out my car again. The snow is a lot heavier than it was last night so it was like shovelling cement this time around and broke my shovel in the process. I got a really good workout at least. I would say we got around 8 inches in Whitestone, maybe more.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
kat5hurricane replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
This is why I was saying 4-8 inches the last couple of days. Mid level warning is almost always underdone by the models in these marginal events at the coast. No complaints from me. It was a fun storm and it's not even officially winter yet.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
kat5hurricane replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Heavy wind driven sleet in Whitestone. I want to dig out the car in a little while so I don't have to do it tomorrow but not looking forward to a million sleet pellets smacking up against me.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
kat5hurricane replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Back to all snow now that it picked up after sleet mixed in temporarily. Blizzard like conditions now. With the dry slot quickly approaching, it looks like a general 4-8 inches for a lot of us near the city.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
kat5hurricane replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
That is odd because I'm in one of the colder spots of Queens. There were definitely some pingers mixed in but that could also be due to the intensity of the snow waning somewhat.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
kat5hurricane replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Just came back from walking the dog. Sleet is already mixing in and I'm in the northernmost part of Queens right near the Throgs Neck bridge. Measured about 3.5 inches- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
kat5hurricane replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Flake size increasing. First sign that the mid levels might be starting to warm but man is it dumping.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
kat5hurricane replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Heavy snow and strong winds in Queens. One of the wildest rides from Manhattan that I've taken in years.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
kat5hurricane replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Really starting to come down in Midtown. Kind of cool looking out from the 59th Street bridge right now at a fog of snow.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
kat5hurricane replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Light snow started in Midtown Manhattan- 1,011 replies
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So it will be called New Nam City after the switch?
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VD 2007 is a prime example. Inches of sleet with temps in the teens.
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This needs to be repeated a million times for those who keep talking about surface temperatures and the track of the surface low. The mid levels are what will keep this from being a major snow event around the city, or not if the warm tongue is being overestimated which I doubt based on experience. Sleet almost always seems to advance faster than modelled around these parts.
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I think 4-8 is a reasonable call for the NYC area from south to north, been sticking with this call for a few days. The low track is less than ideal and those warm layers almost always overperform in these marginal situations, I expect a lot of sleet. These 12-18 inch forecasts is ridiculously bold IMO.
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I don't see any major changes with the 0z suite but what's interesting to me is that dry slot showing up in west central Jersey and a strip of heavier snow bleeding down from the Hudson Valley to the northern part of the city. I don't ever recall seeing a snowmap with that look before so close to an event, on multiple models. Overall, still looks like a 4-8 inch sort of deal in the immediate metro.
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Yep, we should be thrilled with that. I think that's the ceiling for us close to the city, 4-8 is probably a more realistic range.
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I think it's pretty much a given that the heaviest snow will be well north of the city. At this point, it's about salvaging a 6-10 inch type event with the initial slug of precip..
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Something off with that run. It moved off the Delmarva at hour 33 then back west into the Delmarva at 35? Uh... ok then. The 18z runs always seem to be kind of wonky. 0z will be more telling.
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Can some people let the run finish instead of saying stuff like "Game Over" before it plays out? The Euro seems fine to me based on first look.
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