kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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Well, obviously that's the risk but it's not "all she wrote" because of one GFS run that barely budged 3 days before the event. However, if the Euro takes a noticeable shift east tonight, it's trouble.
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Jesus, can you people stop with posts like this? It adds nothing to the discussion. The GFS has been doing the windshield wiper thing the last few days. Not saying it's wrong but it hasn't been that consistent either. The final solution is far from locked in at this point.
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The Nam went from tuck to blow.
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Man, the nam is tucked and looks ready to blow up post 84 hour frame.
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Yes but the GFS has been trending west ever since 18z yesterday. It could be a windshield wiper effect situation where it goes east again but it's not like the GFS has been consistent with its solution. In any event, conservative is definitely the way to go until a consensus forms.
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You're not wrong but it should be noted how consistent the Euro has been the last few days as well as how tightly clustered the ensembles are. Very far from a locked in position especially with the variance of the other models but it's a good spot to be in right now which, of course, can change quickly.
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We definitely don't need "substantial" changes to get 12+ from the city on west. The suburbs are another story
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That's a pretty significant jump west by the GFS. Not Euro like, but trending in the right direction since the 18z whiff yesterday.
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GFS is doing the windshield wiper thing. Went well east at 18z then back west at 00z. Still way too early to make any determination. It would be nice to see the CMC somewhat hold serve since it sniffed out this thing first.
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But could also be detrimental for the coast with the phase causing a closer track to the coast. That's what makes this such a thread the needle event, so much can go wrong in either direction.
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Maybe for a 24+ inch storm but you could get a 12-18 inch storm even with a fast mover, it's happened before.
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You can't really take the surface maps too seriously at this point and the east/west windshield wiper effect. What we do know is that there looks to be a really big storm somewhere. All the other stuff will be ironed out over the next few days. It does seem very thread the needle though. A lot will have to line up perfectly to get big snows here so don't get your hopes up too high.
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Man, this storm has massive potential as well as massive heartbreak potential but that's what makes tracking fun, eh? If this comes to fruition, when was the last time the CMC led the way when it was on its own? I honestly can't remember.
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Like 95% of the population does.
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We had a 6-8 inch storm locally just a few weeks ago which is almost a third of NYC's annual snowfall average and is close to the January average. Some perspective is indeed for what a NYC winter should look like.
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Looks like a mid March storm. White rain. The real story will be when the ponding freezes up later, it's going to be slippery out there this evening.
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It's rare that a model, completely on its own like the Euro in this instance, scores a win. If you're right about the Ukie trending the wrong way, that's a sign that the Euro will shift east also.
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There's no science behind this but I always feel better about storms that are modelled too far east to trend west than those that are forecasted as inland runners to trend east. It's why I never bought into the last storm even 5 or so days out.
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Just took the dog out, little guy was buried gleefully (well, not so gleefully, I was the gleeful one ) in about 6.5" here in Whitestone and coming down moderately.
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And people at work, and friends at home, asking me where's the snow? I said, what snow? I don't watch the news much anymore so I assume that the news was hyping it up because everybody I know seems to think we were supposed to get a snowstorm. I still don't know why anybody watches TV meterologists anymore.
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Hailing in Whitestone, just got home in time to beat it. Don't see that too often
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It was pouring leaves last night with the wind howling. The wind felt great with the mild temperatures. It's going to feel cold again when the temps drop this weekend to "seasonal" levels after a warm week.
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Still haven't gone to long sleeves yet. Walked outside for lunch yesterday with no jacket or pullover which is nice for the second week of November but odd at the same time. In any event, the weather this week has been glorious. Today seems to be another good one.
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I was just about to say this. For me (and snowpack retention snobs like you said), '13-'14 and '14-'15 were more memorable than, say, '05-'06 and '15-'16 which had a blockbuster storm each but was pretty much a nothing burger otherwise which was basically a 2 day winter as opposed to the 5-6 week winters of the previously mentioned years with no really memorable individual storms but an unforgettable extended winter with long lasting snowpack and consistent pack refresher moderate snowstorms.
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And when snowman19 posts
