sarcean

City of Atlanta under Tornado warning

The big snow will be tonight not the day today

WWA advisory out of GSP: Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston- Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke- Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York- Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte, Concord, Kannapolis, Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Gaffney, Catawba, and Rock Hill 311 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with spotty 3 inch accumulations near the I-40 corridor, and amounts around 1/2 inch southeast of I-85. * WHERE...Portions of the eastern Upstate of South Carolina as well as the foothills and Piedmont of western North Carolina. * WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to midnight EST Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Roads will initially be warm and wet, but with slippery conditions developing as temperatures fall through the day. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Widespread black ice is expected Thursday night into Friday morning as temperatures fall into the 20s. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling.

GSP is being very conservative...when the high amount (1 in 10 chance) is only 1" still for Charlotte

The models are going to move so much today, no reason to put in final call maps yet

Hard to put faith into a map that doesn’t even include a B on it

GSP is being quite conservative

Not the best look

I bet KGSO will cash in regardless but KCLT will have to deal with borderline temps

It's amazing we have the best models there have ever been and they still disagree so much this close to the storm. I was in Greensboro last winter for the 14 inch storm (and was in Boone the same storm when 2 plus feet fell) but kind of doubt anyone gets jackpotted like that. Would love to be proven wrong. Not holding much hope in Charlotte but a few inches would be great

Now give the same odds for Charlotte

Too early to say that yet. I think tommorows model runs will either make or break this for us.

You have to think of it like pure math If there is a 50-90% chance of it happening and only 10% of it exceeding that then you always do it for the more likely scenatio. The NWS knew it was a possibility today but it was didn't expect this rare scenario. It's a delicate balance since you never want to cry wolf.

If anyone deserves snow this season it's you after having so many fantasy snows vanish.

What’s the chance of Charlotte getting some decent flakes?

Some wild parts to the Forecast Discussion out of Greenville: "Changes happen in earnest late Wednesday afternoon as the forcing moves up from the SW and after sunset as the main surge of moisture arrives. Precipitable water values are expected to rise above 1.5 inches east of the mtns, with some guidance showing all-time high values late Wednesday night/Thursday compared to the climatology at FFC and GSO. Even more impressive are the moisture and water vapor transport anomalies during that time period, which are greater than 3 standard deviations and represent max values in the climatology. Periods of heavy rain are likely from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the atmospheric river translates across the region accompanied by strong mid/upper level forcing. There is the potential for 3-5 inches of rain by the time this system exits our region early Friday morning, with even more in the S/SW upslope areas of the mtns. A Flood Watch seems like a foregone conclusion with the scenario presented in the model guidance. However, the main threat will not ramp up until Wednesday night and there remains some uncertainty about the extent of the flood potential, so we will hold off with issuance for the time being. The other problem with be the severe thunderstorm potential, the details of which continue to remain elusive as guidance shows run-to-run inconsistency with the amount of instability. Everyone agrees that shear will be outstanding, on the order of 50-60 kt in a deep layer on Thursday and Thursday evening as a 60-70kt low level jet surges NE out of the Gulf. The GFS and ECMWF have backed off with their depiction of sfc-based CAPE, with both barely registering 100-250 J/kg. Meanwhile, the latest NAM develops better than 500 J/kg to the south of a boundary running along I-85 late Thursday afternoon, but the 03Z SREF shows very low probability of getting the CAPE above that level. Thus, the amount of instability continues to be a limiting factor. Suffice to say, the best chance for severe storms will be along and south/east of I-85, but will the mode be a QLCS with wind damage and isolated tornadoes, or will it be a large band of heavy rain with embedded tornadic supercells? The cold front should cross the region late Thursday and early Friday, bringing an end to the flood/severe threats. Moisture wrapping around a frontal wave will keep precip chances along the TN border into at least Friday morning, while colder air moves in from the NW. Precip will change to snow showers in the upslope areas along the TN border, with some potential for a minor snow accumulation at high elevations. This activity should wind down by sunset on Friday."

we had a good 10-15 minutes of a nice heavy snow shower in Uptown Charlotte. Hope that is not in for the winter...

Fresh in my mind is Greensboro receiving officially over a foot (which was really 15"+ in many areas) in a snowstorm last season with Winston 14.5". Sure the rest of the winter was mostly quiet but it was the third snowiest day in Greensboro history. Lets not act like central NC hasn't gotten anything in a while.

Correct me if I'm wrong but Raleigh is normally quite conservative to call for snow so I think its big they are so bullish on this storm so far

Have to feel pretty good in Greensboro when the official NWS forecast is: Saturday A chance of snow after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly after 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

isn't it about time to make a thread for it

Would of been happy with the totals in Greensboro but driving to Boone right now to a cabin. Looks like I'll hit jackpot there. The question is when I'll be able to get back to Greensboro....Wilkesboro and Winston Salem in between look like they will get slammed too

Crap I'm headed up to Boone shortly. I need to get on the road if it's already in Asheville!

RAH Southern stream shortwave over the Lower MS Valley Saturday evening will eject east-northeast across the Southeast US through Sunday night. At the surface, attendant sfc low traversing the Gulf Coast States on Saturday will re-organize off the SE coast Sunday and Sunday night before moving out to sea on Monday. Preceded by a strong cold Arctic high that will build into the area from the north Saturday and Saturday night, there is still high confidence that a significant winter weather event will unfold across central NC late Saturday night and Sunday, with the potential for some lingering light precipitation Sunday night as the next shortwave trough approaches the area from the west. Forecast confidence in snow amounts are highest along and north of the I-85, including the Triad, where the strong CAD High to our north and associated diabatic cooling will keep the low-level cold air locked in place and where the warm nose will be less prominent. So after a potential brief mix at onset Saturday night, the predominate p-type will be mostly snow through late Sunday afternoon and evening, transitioning to a light freezing rain/drizzle, once we loss saturation aloft and lift/forcing begins to weaken. Have kept snowfall amounts in the 8 to 12 inches range, with the bulk of this falling between 4 am to pm Sunday. An additional 0.10" of ice from light freezing rain/drizzle on top of the snow is possible. Given, this is the area where confidence is highest, will upgrade the winter storm watch to a warning across the far NW Piedmont counties, including Person County. Just east of this heavy snow area(south and east of I-85) and west of Interstate 95, given the potential for the warm nose aloft to support multiple p-types throughout much of the event, forecast confidence in snow amounts are much lower in this area, which would greatly cut-back on snow accumulation. However, the latest 12 km NAM has trended colder both in the low-levels and aloft across the central/northern Piedmont, as well into the northern coastal Plain. Given the colder thermal profiles, snow and sleet could now linger into afternoon/early evening, before changing over to freezing rain/drizzle with loss of saturation and lift aloft Sunday evening/night. Have expanded the Winter Storm Watch east to include areas west of I-95. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible, with expectations of a sharp cut-off along the eastern edge of these area. IF the warm air aloft is indeed stronger than advertised, the impacts across this area will still be great, with the potential for ice accumulations from freezing rain of 0.10-0.20" possible. Finally, for areas east of I-95 and across the far se counties, rain Saturday night/Sunday morning could briefly mix with sleet and freezing rain before changing over to rain. At this time, snow and ice amounts are expected to be light. As such, will be omitted from the watch. Temperatures: Lows Saturday night in the upper 20s NW to mid 30s, with only a 2 to 3 degree recovery expected on Sunday. Lows Sunday night very similar to Saturday night. Thus any snow and ice on roads and surfaces will linger through Monday.