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Silas Lang

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Everything posted by Silas Lang

  1. Oof, the 18z GFS. Is this essentially the part where we lose the storm? Timing is about right.
  2. Interesting changes today. Almost feels like the models/ensembles want to give us snow, but still don't know exactly how it will happen, if that makes sense.
  3. 37 now and saw some flakes, though rain is probably mixed in. Hard to tell due to the wind and small size.
  4. I hope not,but having lived up there for several years, it can definitely get the short end in these scenarios. On the flip side, they can sometimes score when no one else can. They are overdue for that honestly.
  5. 40 and looks like rain here in Fountain City.
  6. Yeah,my folks in Anderson County had about 1.5 inches. We stayed over for Christmas and driving back it was weird seeing it get snowier as we went east. Pretty tight gradient. I had about 5 inches in Fountain City.
  7. Agreed. And I think it's important to match expectations with location. Living in the central valley, if I can get 2 inches, I am content. Everything else is gravy. Which speaking of totals, I was looking at upper air temps and temps ( on the GFS) and it will be really cold. I assume this stuff will be very high ratio? Shouldn't take a lot of moisture if that's the case, and could easily over perform.
  8. Snow or no snow, models seem in agreement that it will be COLD next week. Also, as an aside, this is probably the most fun I have had tracking since the March snow in 22. Been too long, gents. This winter has already been more interesting than last year even if it doesn't pan out. lol
  9. Yeah the cold definitely seems to be coming regardless. Hope it ain't with a bunch of ice. Would be a mess for days if that was the case.
  10. We usually don't get much ice. Rain or snow for the most part here in the valley. When was the last one? Anyone have the storm thread? And is that a legit possiblity with this air mass?
  11. Euro is nasty for the east. .25 ice, .50 sleet and .5 inch of snow. Then days below freezing with frigid temps. That would be some crusty gunk.
  12. Good runs last night. GFS kept MLK storm and Euro supports it. And the 0z Canadian at least tried.
  13. Smart move. There have been times I have not been forecasted for wind and I have received large gust. There are also times when the opposite occured. Wind is tough to predict here (as is weather in general) due to the hills, ridges, and general landscape. I have a friend who lives on a hill and it is always breezy. It's like being on the beach. lol Bet he gets some stout gusts tonight and tomorrow, even if I get nada. Better safe than sorry, and I don't think the general public will really notice if it doesn't pan out. Good call.
  14. Seems like it almost always happens after a super cold air mass. It's not on the latest GFS, but it seems to be fairly common. Anyone know why that's the case?
  15. Man, Tuesday looks to be intense. Up to 2 inches of rain in spots and the wind. It is like a hurricane higher up! Anyway, I am not a severe weather guy, but can we can expect any lightning? Not really sure how to look for that.
  16. Pretty par for the course the past few years. Lots of 30s and rain in the valley while the Plateau west cleans house. It's like we are stuck in that Nina pattern.
  17. That system on Tuesday looks to be real stout. Lots of rain and wind. Even noticed models have increased the backside flurries and snow showers. Does anyone think the models will get a better read of the 7+ day cold/snow chances after Tuesday? I know big storms usually lead to big changes.
  18. Yeah, maybe cave was too strong, but it looked like an improvement on the surface from the 0z run at least.
  19. Runs not over, but it looks like the Euro is caving towards the GFS as well. Good trends overall today if you want snow.
  20. Obviously nothing is set in stone, but it is hard to not love the trend on the GFS for the post MLK day storm. Still a long ways to go, but man, models have typically been all over the place, especially this far out. The consistency is extremely alluring. Talk me back guys.
  21. My memory is blurry, but which winter was it when we last had some back to back storms? 2015, 2014, 2013? Sort of reminds me of that. I was in Johnson City at the time and it seemed like there was a year when I was at ETSU where there were a few big events with some small upslope, snow shower stuff peppered in between. Probably the last "great" snow winter I experienced.
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