Silas Lang
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Everything posted by Silas Lang
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Wow, this lastest run shows it as all snow in the valley. Much quicker changeover. Let us hope it is correct!
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From what I have observed on the models, most in the southern valley get their thump starting now (if temps and rates cooperate) while those of us in the central and northern valley get more from the deform band this evening. Maddening, but I think we just need to have patience and hope the band this evening works out us. Most models had us getting nada until the evening so we are still on track!
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Radar already seems to be filling back in? 3k Nam had it coming back in between 12-1. Is the low still in the mountains? Anyone know? Dropped 2 degrees in last hour. Wind was coming out of the E/ESE during the dry slot. Now it is coming out of the N/NW. Also have some flakes and ice pellets mixing in, though still mostly rain. She is trying though! Obviously a pretty thin warm layer. I should state that I am north of downtown Knoxville.
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Wow, lots of potential in the next few weeks. We could potential get some snow with snow still on the ground, which I love. The mark of a good winter.
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Yeah, pretty sure that is the case. Looks to start filling back in around 1 or 2.
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The HRRR is pretty terrible outside of a few hours in my experience. I find the NAM way more reliable these days. It was pretty spot on for the last storm, temps and all.
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Just curious, does this help explain the difference in modeling snow totals? Like some runs have nothing while the last GFS was pretty good. I know there is a lot going on with this storm and the low placement, but just curious if some models are interpreting rain as snow and vice versa.
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Yeah, the 12z was a step in the right direction. The low looked like it almost made it to the coast before popping up in the mountains. Regardless, with the low not immediately jumping to our neck of the woods, the dry slot was smaller and the temps a bit better as a result. I think if we can at least keep some moisture here the backend could work out better for eastern folks which is pretty much what the 12z shows.
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Yeah, stick a fork in it. Easier to get snow in pretty much any other part of TN and the deep south states then the valley at this point.
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There is really nothing to "force it" back south and east, correct? Does the low simply need to be weaker and less amped?
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I am not really buying that run of the NAM. Just does not seem like a common track at all. The LP starts north, goes south, then back north? Any relevant historical analogues to support this track?
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Same, but still not convinced for the valley. I do believe that we could see some snow. Just not convinced on the larger totals. Temps are trending in the right direction. I think when the NAM gets in range we will have a better look at potential downsloping, warm nose, and etc for the valley. It did pretty great with the last storm about 48 hours before. It seemed to have the sharp cutoff above 40 in Knox accurately depicted. The RGEM for example did not show this feature, and instead pasted Knox county with 4 or 5 inch totals even while the storm was ongoing. NAM did excellent in comparison.
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Can't say I am really that excited about this for the valley. Complex systems don't seem to work too well for us as too much can ( and usually does) goes wrong. Looks like some warm air will find a way along with downsloping and marginal temps. I am personally not seeing it. I expect a sloppy inch here at most.
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I like where we are at with the pending NW trend. Is there any reason this would stay suppressed?
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Yeah roads are going to be awful with the temps. Surprised they cancelled the advisory due to poor conditions regardless of accumulation.
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Maybe it was jinxing us?! Roads are now white here. No more sleet. Before it starting snowing hard again there was a lot of wind and a few minute burst of heavy sleet. It almost looked like rock salt falling out of the sky. Now it is dumping snow. Down to 31 as well.
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Perfect time to lift the advisory. Ripping here again. Definitely a lot of sleet. But roads will be a mess.
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I still think there is a chance for some action. Even the HRRR which has shown the NW trend shows the system reorienting.
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Yeah, have a had a north wind since the big snow burst an hour or so ago. Tiny flakes been falling steady here since then. Not really adding up a whole lot, but still have a solid dusting. Just hit 32 a few minutes ago after hanging at 33 for a while. Hopeful I can score at least 2 or 3 out of this event. In Knox, a few miles north of 40 and downtown.
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Temp fell 2 degrees. Down to 33 here. Got a thick dusting at the moment.
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Just started ripping here. Beautiful. All snow.
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There is definitely a warm layer. When it slows down there is more mixed frozen precipitation. Making my yard nice and crunchy. Roads going to be bad later. However, no rain like forecasted.
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I am just outside of it myself. Regardless starting to feel better about Knox based on the obs here.
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Starting to pick up a little. All snow now! Dime flakes and starting to stick on deck and grass. Went from 36 to 35 degrees.
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Getting some light snow, graupel, and sleet here north of downtown. 36 degrees.
