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Silas Lang

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Everything posted by Silas Lang

  1. Silas Lang
    20 here as well. Was 13 this morning.
  2. Silas Lang
    There may be some downslopping, but not that prominent, correct? I remember that it has happened when I was in Johnson City, but seemed to me that Kingsport and Bristol faired way better. Seems way too pronounced.
  3. Silas Lang
    Can I just say, I love that they release these probability and confidence graphics. I feel like they used to not do that years ago? Maybe they did and I didn't pay attention. Anyway, I really like them and think it is much better information to put out there due to the nature of snow storms in the southeast. It shows some transparency in the process which I appreciate.
  4. Silas Lang
    I think it is downslopping. When I lived there it was also annoying and remember, it is a giant bowl surrounded by mountains so you can get downslopped from literally every direction.
  5. Silas Lang
    Hope y'all like sleet! Yeah, it has the LP right on the other side of the Apps at the end of the run.
  6. Silas Lang
  7. Silas Lang
    Nah man, it is going to snow. Feeling pretty good about it, though the NAM and GFS was throwing in some sleet for Knox.
  8. Silas Lang
    Yeah, has that CAD valley look. Looks like it is banking against the plateau. Can really see it as the warm air starts coming in and even as elevated areas are overtaken by warm air.
  9. Silas Lang
    Something I to watch for: NAM is significantly colder for the Sunday/Monday system. Icing much farther south than globals. We will see if it catches up with the other models or if it is on to something.
  10. Silas Lang
    Looking at the Jan 6th system and timing, I think east TN should be on lookout. Precip happens at night and early morning on most models. Also have the possibility of cold air lingering in some valley regions. I forget which year, but I seem to remember am almost mini CAD event with cold air banked up against the plateau and some ridges. Essentially, be prepared and know your microclimates Monday morning. I expect the return to school to be delayed assuming the trends hold.
  11. Silas Lang
    Thanks man! Appreciate the further insight.
  12. Silas Lang
    Post from Millvillewx in Mid Atlantic forum. Interesting tidbits pertaining to us. Seems to think GFS is correct in depicting early precip in our region.
  13. Silas Lang
    Just wanted to say, I love these posts about little micro features.
  14. Silas Lang
    Had some lightning here this evening as well sometime around 5pm. Took me by surprise honestly as I had to think for a second as I was looking out the window when it happened. lol Pretty unexpected!
  15. Silas Lang
    Not really. Just an observation.
  16. Silas Lang
    Annnddd the 18z looking totally different. lol
  17. Silas Lang
    Huge improvement. Not a hit, but I would take it this far out anyway. Way better than the cold rain look we had been seeing. The ingredients are at least there on the 12z run.
  18. Silas Lang
    I don't know what maps Pivotal weather shows, but the kuchera ratio is a bit lower on totals. The southern edge of precip has some sleet and freezing rain mixed in in eastern areas. Seems there is a warm layer around 700mb on the 0z run. Pretty weird, as it is a pretty stout cold elsewhere. Interestingly enough, the 06z GFS has a better low placement, but weaker cold air. That said, still way too far out to worry about the finer details. We now have a couple of runs showing a signal. The Euro and Canadian should be in range tonight. Curious to see if they support this setup.
  19. Silas Lang
    Pretty annoyed to see the NCAA is looking into UT for NIL. That organization is an absolute joke. Hope the university (along with others) sues them to oblivion.
  20. Silas Lang
    I was about to say, finally some real cold looked to filter down at the end of that run. When it's raining in Minnesota, it's hard to get snow here. lol I know it's the GFS at 384, but it lines up with what some of y'all of been saying about mid February onward and opportunities.
  21. Silas Lang
    Yeah, now that you mention it, I seem to remember this happening a few years ago. I was thinking "there is no way that low travels due north"...and it very well did! lol Wasn't there another one last year (maybe the year before) where the low travelled straight into the mountains? Regardless, I don't like energy transfers. Hope it stays a simple Gulf low for all of us.
  22. Silas Lang
    And the CMC is...something. Takes the Gulf low due north to Nashville then transfers to Asheville then finally goes to the coast with another low popping off the coast of GA at the end. Sort of crazy look all over the place. EDIT: to be clear, this about the storm potential on the 5th.
  23. Silas Lang
    12z GFS interesting. Flirting with something big on the 5th.
  24. Silas Lang
    The Cumberland mountains look like they are getting hammered. Hard to see through the clouds, but looks like areas over 2500 feet or so are white.
  25. Silas Lang
    Man, that is weird about the grass. Was noticing today that mine looks way greener than before the snow. Does all that moisture from the snow and protection from bitter cold with snowpack, help the grass or something? And about the models struggling with all the niña data, the snowstorm we just experienced was modeled as a cutter, similar to the past couple of years until they finally settled on what we got, more or less.
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