The Ole Bucket

I could complain that we didn't get more, but what's the point? A decent result here in southeast Missouri (about 6") and bitterly cold this morning.

Likely going to score a quick inch this morning here in SEMO before the main event.

Well since it completely plasters my backyard I would say now

A foot of pure powder IMBY according to the 18Z GFS (Kuchera) I would gladly take half of that!

This is a forecast if I've ever seen one for next Tuesday.. Cloudy with snow showers becoming a steady accumulating snow later on. Very cold. High 16F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 3 to 5 inches.

This is real #LOCKITIN stuff right now

I will absolutely have what the 12Z GFS is having for next Tuesday.

They might be on course for the record

Got family in north Florida. No way that Kuchera map verifies for Duval/St Johns county.. right?!

12z GFS today still likes a storm next Thursday. And then gets wacky around 300hr with an absolute bomb

18z GFS is wild for next week.

There have been no disappointments in the other regional boards so far. Even the despondent Midwest folks who have been hosed so far this winter are slightly happy! Here in SEMO we're on course for at least 6" IMBY. Maybe 7 as it keeps trucking as I post this.

Yeaaah that's the good stuff man. Nice. Definitely cleared the bar here and the warning criteria materialized. Probably 6" in the end. Still light-to-mod snow out there. 31F. Calm winds. Gorgeous.

This one seems like big boom/bust potential. Signal is there but of course the track is what is gonna matter most. For sure going to be COLD again behind it. Would be a shame to lose all this snowpack when the temps get into the upper 40s next Thurs/Fri and then get 33F, cold rain.. followed by single-digit lows.

The county just to the south of mine here in SE Missouri had an Ice Storm Warning with the Sun/Mon event that absolutely verified. Folks still without power today, now getting socked with 6" of snow today. Would not recommend. I mean, I would recommend the snow. I wouldn't recommend the whole being without power for a week and snow covering a half inch of ice thing.

That Lambo in ATL lol

Beautiful view from the home office. Ripping.

You all probably have seen also though what has happened further south. DFW and ATL were a lot wetter than originally anticipated. And slightly colder. Radar is apparently showing sleet in the metro but it's actually falling as very heavy, wet snow. With a layer of sleet underneath it. Just an absolute mess. Reminds me of what we got with last weekend's storm here.

I'm saying that the models picked up on it pretty darn well in my area anyway. Here the QPF I think was like 0.5?! And we're on course for 5". Nice to have temps in the upper 20s to stay on course with the 10:1 ratio. Kuchera and the 10:1 were almost identical for the last 24 hours. And they're seeming to be fairly on the money. In Missouri I'd say that the northern extent was very well modeled. I was extremely skeptical, as were a lot of people in the Western states forum that it would hold that way. Surely the cutoff had to be much sharper than what the models were saying. That always freaking happens. Not this time. Of course, the Appalachians could throw a big wrench into it for you all when it heads East. But so far, the sharp cutoffs we assumed were not being modeled correctly have not materialized. We're headed to a nice 4-5" here. And STL, about 65 miles north of me, is on track for about 2-2.5." Exactly what last nights NAM and HRRR were saying.

Believe that this thing has juice for those in the strike zone. Fairly well ripping here in southeast MO. Likely to live up to the late warning NWS posted yesterday. Tulsa folks said they are on track to get 7" or so. Crushing through AR and TN. HRRR seems to be verifying.

Coming along fairly well now. Mod snow here I'd say.

An interesting historical thing to track for Jan. 20, especially if the snowstorm doesn't materialize, would be whether DC has its coldest Inauguration since Reagan in 1985. That was truly wild with noontime temp at 7F. Images from Obama's first term make it look very cold but actually it was 28F. Wind chills were in the teens though. Not bringing politics into it at all, but it's fascinating to see how often DC has had truly garbage weather for presidential inaugurations. Few days where it's been sunny and mild. A lot of cold or drizzly or even sleet (Nixon!) and March snowstorms back in the day. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_Inauguration

Wow already? Probably only an inch or so here thus far. But the much heavier stuff is to come. Still have the bar at 4"