J Paul Gordon

Thanks for the reply and the explanation. I well remember 77-78 and who could forget 014-15?

How do 2001-02 and 2011-12 work for analogs for the upcoming winter? Serious question, not weenie whining. I'm wondering about the ENSO/El Nino factor. Since I'm not a Met, I don't have the facts at my fingertips. With the big warm-up coming next week and long-range forecasts for AN fall and winter, I'm curious as to HOW much warmer than average. Is it even possible to make a good guess on that? Thanks for any serious responses.

Make that through December. AN, I mean. Mid 50's in mid-December this Nino year.

Any thoughts on the actual storm?

80/70 here in Clinton/Lancaster. My (not up to NOAA standard) thermometer says a high of 96 today, low of 70.

I remember lots of September heatwaves when I was in school. Miserable in corduroys and long sleeve shirts. Absolutely no AC back then (We're talking 60's and early 70's) and that was back in the day when school started after Labor Day. It'll start to cool down at the end of September. Always does. Just like it warms up at the end of March. September has always been a summerish month in my memories just like March is almost always winterish. Plenty of exceptions, but September is never wintry and March is never summery. I'm speaking of the months as a whole, not the historical highs/lows.

Winter of 1995-96? Good analog? Winter 2016-2017? Good analog? Winter 2002-2003? Outlier?

We've gotten over a foot, but it is really packed down. It holds at about 8 inches no matter what gets added—32F steady light snow. The flakes are tiny now, and it feels colder than earlier in the day when the temperature was the same.

Wonder how long we'll stay in this dry slot. It looks like it extends pretty far west. A good event even if we don't get anything more.

In a lull now for the last hour. The temperature went up to 36, but my thermometer is tacked on the privacy fence between my place and my neighbor's and tends to warm up this time of day. Not sure how much solar energy is getting through the clouds, but since we are up 2 to 3 degrees from surrounding stations, I wonder. Not a lot of dripping out there yet, though the wind is taking snow off the trees. I'm glad about that; less chance of losing power.

Pictures of snow in the Worcester County low country (elevation 340). We are just west of 495 and a few miles south of Rt 2. Very compact and wet. 8" on the ground due to compaction. Temp now 33 F. Rate has slowed in the past few minutes.

I had 7" otg here in Clinton an hour plus ago, and it was just starting to accumulate at my daughter's house in Marlborough, just 15 miles south and east. Still 32F with heavy snow.

My pug must have old age sag! 7" on the ground (measured in 3 spots on the lawn); 6 " on the driveway. Very dense and wet and no drifting. Still 32F, and heavy snow.

32F. I just took the dog out. She's a pug, and the snow was just a tad beneath her belly, so about 8" on the pavement by that measurement. LOL Coming down heavy right now. Trees are coated, and that has me worried about power outages. The lines here at Ridgefield are below ground, but not the ones that feed us. Too bad our gas fireplace is on the fritz. It's supposed to work without power, but it has to be working in the first place.

34F. Snowline is literally a couple of miles to my north/northwest. The temperature dropped from 39 at 7:30 to 34 in the last hour.

Down to 34 from 39 earlier this evening. Dropped a couple of degrees in the last hour or so. The snow line is just about on top of me--two or three miles away to the north/northwest. Unless the temperature is going to rise again soon, it will likely be snowing hours before they predicted it would. School is canceled for tomorrow. No complaints from my 7th and 8th graders and none from me either. I'm just a bit worried about power outages since my gas fireplace chose to stop working yesterday!

We ended up with about 8" here in Clinton/Lancaster. Areas to the south and southwest (including Worcester city--about 500' lower than the airport) got about half that amount or less. Starting to feel like I'm in the new Lunenburg, but amounts in Sterling and Fitchburg match up. Boylston is only about six miles south, and driving through this morning, they had a couple of inches less. Shrewsbury is higher than I am by about 300' but even less there than Boylston (at the exit onto 290 west). That's been the case all winter. We had a glacial base of 2-3 inches under it. Would that have affected how well the new snow piled on? I've only lived here since last April, but the microclimate seems significantly different from where I lived in Worcester city (Green Hill Park area at 660' elevation).

It looks like we won't have to cancel my grandson's first birthday party in Southbridge. We're going to reschedule for 2 PM. They're still calling for 8"+ here in Clinton, but I figure the reality will be much lower. (Maybe 1-3 in Southbridge; 3-5 max in Clinton?)

My grandson's first birthday party is scheduled in Southbridge, MA, Saturday morning. When I saw 8-12 for Friday night and 1-3 more for Saturday morning on my Weather Channel app, I felt my heart drop for my daughter and son-in-law (not to mention my wife and me). I can't say I'm sorry to hear the storm will flop south of the pike. We're closer to the NH line, so maybe a few inches here, but Johnny and his little (and not so little) friends will have their party. I'm a snow lover (gotta say more so earlier in the season), but nothing beats a grandson.

Catholic School where I teach is closed for tomorrow. They go by what the town decides, and Shrewsbury, MA, is known for not canceling until the big caterpillar earthmovers can't move the stuff. Great to have a day off after a week's vacation. I am not kidding. I'm getting old and crabby. lol

24F/4C About 3.5 inches of cement at Ridgefield.

Beautiful weather, 50/37 here right now but sincerly hoping for snow and semi winter cold at the end of next week. I'd be happy to get a couple of weeks of highs near or a bit below freezing and a significant snowstorm somewhere around the very end of the month and beginning of March. Really, our last best chance.

Low here -13F; current 0. Tomorrow 47! LOL

Warmest winter in recorded (since 1892 in Worcester) history? And next year is supposed to be a Nino, so expect another AN winter (probably not as extreme as this, though). This year might pass for a winter in the UK? No really extreme heat but a near-constant run of 40s in the day and near-freezing nights, plus lots of cloudiness.

We still have a pretty much solid cover here, too. A little patchy on hillsides that get full exposure to the sun. But it still looks like winter. Must be the water content in the snow because a fluffy type would have long ago disappeared. I'm pretty sure it will be gone for the couple of near-normal days this coming week and the one-day wonder at the end. In Southbridge, MA it's all gone and Worcester looks pretty much the same (at least from 290). 46/35 right now.