bwt3650

Froude numbers between 1 and 2 tonight which looks like it favors us up here. Just learning about this so someone else who knows better jump in, but I’m thinking this is a good signal for tonight after the initial burst of precipitation. https://www.weather.gov/btv/froudeALL

Nam and rgem look to keep things real wintery over the next several days. Starting today up here, Friday looks like the only day without significant snow in the air through Sunday. The upslope signal looks good too and the weekend looks like it might stay all snow. Maybe this is what finally gets us started. Big chances from where this looked like it was headed Monday.

Most important take away from this weekend...it’s not the grinch all over.

I’m with you..just need a solid foot to get things going. Jay might as well be hunter without the glades. #skithewoods

I noticed radar is really bad up here. I’ve been using the 400 zoom and just kind of following the pulse near Richford to see what’s coming but it’s a lot easier to see what’s going on toward Mansfield. I’m guessing the weather underground out of Burlington is the best radar for around here. tnrw night into weds looking kinda decent for our area down to Jspin.

Yeah, the 3k is really starting to light it up weds night with what looks like some serious upslope after the initial burst comes through. Looks like maybe somehow we could squeeze out a 6 plus deal.

Picked up close to 3” throughout the morning and early afternoon here at jay, but it didn’t do much to help. Wind was kickin so everything was pretty firm. The moving carpet on stateside that got blown over last week is apparently done and will have to be replaced over the summer. Any other year that would have been devastating during Christmas week, but with the reduced capacity, can’t really notice it in the lesson pods. The place isn’t busy by any stretch, but there’s people here which is good for them. Really need NYD to work out up here to get things rolling.

Deep winter day up here. Steady light snow since about 8 with some heavier bursts and breezy. Prob picked up 2 or so more inches. Radar doesn’t show much but it’s been consistent.

We had a decent burst the last hour, more like a snow shower now.

Pretty amazing lake enhancement from Ontario makes it all the way up here with the daks in the way. The tug hill wrings out all that moisture with such lower altitudes. Last year I think that big late feb storm of over 30” up here was due in big part to Lake Ontario. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of how many events have a lake enhancement and how many are true upslope only, although I guess the upslope moisture is frequently lake generated?

A little over an inch here this morning and currently light snow showers. At least it looks like it should outside.

Starting to snow moderately again..looks like a decent band, better down towards Mansfield. Maybe a quick inch or two tonight.

I’ve heard about the melts in here. Perhaps it’s needed at this point.

That is unbelievable..what trail is that? Did you guys completely shut down the trails that year? They are blowing the crap out of the mountain here just trying to keep things decent. There have been a couple times it looked like they were primed for a decent expansion, but it never broke right. The northern greens need it.

Man is that snow level close..went out to get beer down in Montgomery and it’s rain and 37. Snow didn’t start back up until about 1500’. Light snow currently. Not sure tonight is going to be a big upslope winner.

Hopefully, you are feeling better. Last night over-performed up here. Close to 5 at 1850' and while not enough to get back to any natural trails, it def made conditions much better than expected. If we could score another 3-6 mon/tues and not have a NYD washout, with some decent back-end snows, we would be "ok" shape heading into a time where shit really has to go bad not start building a decent base up here. We need one 12-18 storm to put the base down and then hopefully, upslope our way to reliable conditions. So i strongly approve of your opinion for this week!

Didn't see this coming...heavy at times, wind blown powder falling. 3-4" maybe. Not deep powder by any stretch, but it's more than just a little dust on crust and much better than expected.

We did whiten it up a bit last night after a total washout. The beginnings of the pack right here.

That’s been the biggest problem this year is retention. I’m still optimistic that as we get deeper into the next few weeks, something will break for a good 10-20 inches. It would really have to be historically bad to fight climatology well int Jan. But yeah, I’m missing the weeks with snow in the area 5 or 6 days in a row that adds up to a foot or two. The consistency is what I’m craving right now. I bet we do see one of those dec 2003 days by the time this winter is done. Extremes usually balance out with other extremes. Did you hear about the stateside moving carpet getting blown about 10 feet to right up here? Closed for “maintenance”...almost have to laugh...complete washout of natural trails and nothing can go right this year. Such a great place that is just having such a bad year.

Do you have the jay depth info?

I bet it’s close, but very deceiving. I haven’t been up there non-stop since November, but from when I have, I’ve seen probably 30-40 of that and I’m at about 1850’. There was an early November storm that was over a foot and probably 10” this Tuesday. Thanksgiving week we nickel and dimed about another 10” too and I know I missed at least one double digit upslope. So at the summit, it may be a bit of a jay measuring number, but i bet it’s close. The real issue is that there has been no real lasting pack. Thanksgiving week washed away that Thursday, many of the early events only lasted a few days and this week’s is clearly gone. The numbers were pretty average until about the last ten days, but the “pack” was way down. The next week to ten days look like shit, but you never know up there. I’m patiently waiting for that monster 2-3 week period where they put down 50-60 inches. Climatology and averages say it should come eventually. When it has snowed though (like early this week) the conditions were fantastic.

They get me over to snow eventually, but what another soaking prior. When does all this blocking get established to stop everything from cutting to Milwaukee?

Feel better, bro. Hate breaking a good cardio routine, but you get it back quick.

There will be woods to find today, but nothing “open”. The flyer was late last year too, but I think they had it up right about now. There was a bad freeze last year right around now that left the whole mountain bulletproof until the last couple days of December when they got dumped on and dropped almost the whole mountain. Compared to Stowe (love Stowe...but....) jay was skiing ten times better yesterday. Stowe has more terrain open but it’s all blown and beat. I think jay is actually being smart with their snowmaking. They are burying all the connections and sacrificing some early season trails so when they do get it, they should last. In past years they would have blown Haynes and maybe Ullrs or goat already, but with limited snowmaking, why dump 5-7 days into a straight shot ttb run. At least that’s my guess. When jay does get it, it will be THE spot this year. Wildcat surprises me? Don’t they have a fairly robust system and decent elevation?

Jay had a nice powder dump last night, but we could still use an 18” bomb with good water content to get the natural trails and woods set for the season. Hoping 12/29 trends a little better up here and then we upslope for a few days next week.