bwt3650

I see nothing. .

Didn't Tahoe do the crazy 5-7 foot totals to start last year too? ...and we're just praying for wet bulbs in the mid 20s.

what's the temp profile top to bottom? Did you get the big inversion?

Apparently, we were both wrong and it was a system fail. I Still wouldn’t have gone for it with the rain. .

If any New England mountain had half that and didn’t open, there would be riots. .

Wouldn't a little SE ridging be ok , especially up here in late Dec/Jan? No suppression issues. Last year was frigid and dry in Jan.

It's a no brainer. They are not opening this weekend with the rain, even if they could put down the base in time. Turn the guns on Sunday night and open by mid week if you want. I think the window post Sunday is good enough that anyone who wants the death ribbon can open by next weekend; then game on for the season.... que the pessimism.

At this point, I guess you have to. Nothing on North Ridge so probably holding off til Sunday there and just hoping the temps last long enough to put down something that doesn't get washed away this weekend on Superstar.

There was lots of talk about that in the NNE thread. He made some remarks about a specific group of people. I'd leave it at that.

Man, great watching those cold shots reload in Canada every couple days toward the end of the 12z run. That's some decent cold up north.

Don't hate the fake stuff

Mid December 2015 throwback pic?

From a NNE Mountain perspective though, the timing was key. Flip the 15th for 10-15 days and you can get snowmaking cranking with good windows and barring what we have right now, that puts you into the time period where above normal doesn't kill you as long as it's not a torch. Flip on the 25th-5th, and you are way behind to start the season. Warm start to November and flip mid month is heaven. Enjoy the mild outside, then flip hard.

It's looking like a great call when there was big pushback of the 15-25th being too early.

honestly, couldn't time this any better. plus 20 when the averages are in the 50s, then flip the switch November 15th for a solid ten day minus period to blow the mountains open, then you're almost into a period where you don't need frigid below normal to get it done in NNE. We should be good til the December 23rd rainstorm. From a ski perspective, we lost 2 -3 weeks of 400 foot vertical. The novelty of Oct-Early Nov skiing is cool, but how many runs down rime and reason or cascade at Mt. Snow can you do. Give me a solid December and the ability to watch my kids last soccer game today in shorts and I'll sign up every year.

Point a for the win...it's political...you can agreed that there is undisputable evidence that over the period of records we have access to (150 years??), the temp graph is up and to the right and also agree that not every so called "extreme" weather event is CC rearing it's ugly face. More importantly, GEFS says snow guns on for the season starting next weekend...Game on.

can it just be warm without climate change?

I don’t think it’s a stretch considering the first two weeks are plus 10-20. .

ha..We're at war today, pf. I think blaming an hour time difference is an excuse; that's the part of the statement I disagree with. Eat better, make time to exercise and people will be healthier. It's probably harder during the short days in the winter, but if people just say screw it, then that's the results they'll get. Long summer days are awesome too. I guess it's just part of the change of seasons to me. And even though 12z op went warmer, I think the cold the 10th through the 15th is a bit stronger on the ensemble than the previous run.

Maybe genetics, daily Starbucks lattes, fast food and laziness over 4pm sunsets?

Na, pre-vail they would have blown snow even if it was inn the 50s...f vail.

No doubt...The ski season for those that ski twice a year is Thanksgiving to Presidents day. The passionate skiers live for March and April. Mild is much better than upper 30s and just warm enough....But by mid November, I'm ready to start seeing those nice long snowmaking windows and snow threats start to show up. The kid in me lives for watching the terrain build out through December and Jan, even if not the best skiing. Jay had a great April. I think I was up around that time...

yeah, you guys do have a long winding route down to start. Lower North slope is the issue, right? Jay just focuses on Jet first, which is 1200 ft of straight down the fall line. Get off the lift, make a turn and just go.

I'm sure I'll pay for going against you but....Trend looks cooler to me on the ensembles over the last 8 runs and it looks like nothing but below normal anomalies from the 9th-15th at 850 and the surface. If that held, wouldn't that get it done with where the averages are by the second week of Nov? I have to think you guys would blow if you get any 24 hour windows once November hits, no? I cant post the maps, but what's the 5 day mean over that time period?

GFS says winter starts in 10 days. Some of those snowmaking windows at the end of the run could make up for lost time. Only two weeks worth of runs to go.