bwt3650

Sometimes, the act/person is so heinous the why doesn’t matter. .

Welcome aboard.

They can get those north ridge trails open with 48 hours of temps if they want it...I can almost guarantee they'll use this shot to start building on superstar for the world cup; just don't know how bad they want the open. If it wasn't for those weekend days currently modeled in the upper 40s there, I'd lean toward a Nov 3rd opening if I had to bet. Those trails are at 3000' though, so might still work.

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Jan 22 was pretty cold in the northern greens too wasn't it? I think I remember a solid 3 week period of pretty brutal days and thinking about wasted cold without a ton of snow.

The only positive I will say about the 80s, and this may be total bs and a clouded memory, but it seems like retention was better. Those frigid 85 and 89 periods could make a dusting last a week. Building a couple ramps on my sled hill, I could be going for three weeks on a couple inches.

It's all perspective. The 80's left a lasting childhood snow impression on some of us. If you're childhood snow memories are post 1993 Superstorm, you have a lot less tolerance for anything below normal.

If this is the one I'm thinking of, you can see the path from Big Jay. I think he was trying to make a connection of some sort.

Do you have data for 2000-2001? I think that was a 500" year up here. Curious how that started snowfall and temp wise.

Lots of panic over these "firsts", but I think timing has a lot to do with it and they aren't necessarily a predictor of winter.

There's been a lot of talk in the main thread about panic over the October warmth, late frost, winter's over etc...but this data shows, as expected, that the timing of the first snow hasn't been a predictor of the winter in Northern Vermont. For example: 2016 had a later than average first snow on October 26th and later than this year, but at jay, was well above average snowfall, 491" 2009 had a much earlier than average first snow on September 30th, but the year finished below average snowfall at 293" Latest ever November 17, 1985 and if I remember, 1985 was a frigid winter, especially January. From what I see, the October/early November "firsts" don't seem to mean much for winter.

Run the GEFS 5 day anomaly out to Nov 26th from 0Z yesterday…that’s not what it shows at all. Near record warmth, followed by a 3-5 day cold shot with some -10 anomalies, then a near normal month. It’s fantasy land, but so is a call for unabated warmth. .

Killington starts blowing early next week and is open on the north ridge by the weekend. Nothing has changed. No one else besides maybe SR would have seriously considered opening yet. I bet all major resorts turn on guns above 2500 midweek if there’s a 72 hour window. .

Just beautiful. 2 foot powder day, but with wind holds.

Ehh...same result; I put up 5 day averages, so the first week of November is BN anyway you read it. We knew the epo dump would be plains first. I'm busting balls more than anything, and don't pretend to know anywhere near as much as the veteran posters and mets, but you were full on sub tropical troll 5 days ago "It’s a furnaced look most of Nov . Hideous" wearing shorts and having diarrhea while mowing on Christmas, or something like that.. The start of Nov is 100 percent not a repeat of October. It's right where we want it. The rest of the month is tbd.

Where exactly is the cold shot backing off? .

We plan on dropping our 350" average to 17" this year.

Snowvember? .

The idea that Halloween and early November are a torch we’re based off emotion, trolling and 384 maps. Could very well end AN, but the cool beginning appears real and I’ll take days 1-7 as -5 to -10 and go from there as opposed to the first 7 of October, which were an early fall gift. .

Despite the warmth, could be right on schedule for that. .

What’s the average date you have legit snowmaking temps above 2500’? I know the bottom third is tough. .

Snowvember is coming. .

It’s not required. Most know what’s a troll post and what’s a weather discussion and observations. It looks like we start November cooler than last year, tho. If I remember, it was cooking until that cold stretch the week before thanksgiving or around thanksgiving. I remember something like a 5 day stretch of primo snow making temps after weeks of crap. .

I like Augtober...Jultember is a stretch. Snowvember?

Warms not bad...+10 in October is great weather. In fact, I think you and I root for a warm Jan because that could still be snowy af; and no one likes sitting on a chair lift with -30 wind chills. But the bs 360 warm anomaly, never going to snow again, winters over, cc is going to make NE Florida, CC is responsible for every warm up trolling gets old. I'll admit though, Nov 10th through about Dec 10th I hate the warmth as it delays the start of the season. That's one of the most important periods of ski season to get things going.