bwt3650

It’s still crushing in the zone.  My wife reports heavy snow at Topnotch.  That zone has to be over 6” now in the standing wave on RT 108.

The flurries are become steady flurries here. I think we’ve squeezed out a total of 3/4” in the last two days. 6” would be like a whole new mountain here.


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Definitely a different vibe today. Also a lot more people out there and the conditions were actually better before it got colder lol 

Pretty bad here today. Couple routes down from the top…icy and beat up loaded with people (holiday crowd too). I don’t envy ski patrol.


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It could be worse though, much worse.
This was 12/27/2015.

At least all trails are white and the mountain passes for winter.

 
Everything is based off 2015-16, just 8 years ago.  Its rough, but no where near the worst in even the past 10 years.
 

Jan 1st backyard at 1850’ last year. The only difference this year is that we started from a much deeper snow pack and the wipe out this year has been followed by a week of torch. The emotional part of me wants to buy a round in the panic room, but I’m trying to stay grounded and say “it’s northern f’n Vermont; it’ll snow”




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5 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

To be totally honest Kev, that was me, and I’m still not worried at all.  Normal/average snow for us is a very good chance imo. Decembers usually suck in strong Ninos, so this is not a surprise.  Things will change around. 

Wasn't just you..I said it too.. November was great up north and the calls for a November torch were simply, just because.  It was nothing like last year and several LR "torchy" periods got beat back.  But there is no denying December, particularly the last two weeks for NNE, have been nothing short of a disaster, torch, shit sandwich, whatever you want to call it. The calls for a December torch were right, though I think some were for the wrong reason..but right is right.  We can easily still get to normal snowfall totals and up north, it can change really quickly.  I prefer to be optimistic, especially in late December.  

Merry Christmas NNE crew! Time for some Christmas miracles to fix the skiing!


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So what is intact is largely boiler plate everywhere , that is good to hit groomers first thing in am and then wait till the next am 

Nothing natural is skiable. Too many rocks poking through, water bars, bare spots. If it was just an even, consistent melt I think some of them would have been bad, but open. The heavy rain washing stuff out is was really hurt. You won’t see anything but snowmaking trails at jay, and probably anywhere in vt until at least 6-8 fresh IMO. I guess the good part is there is snow on the trails, just not the entire trail. The other problem is that because terrain is so limited now, even the groomers are getting beat by 10am with holiday traffic. It just sucks after how good it was for the better part of 4 weeks. Need to get the 28th to changeover faster and overperform, or sit nearby so we can at least upslope our way back to respectability. The resorts with snowmaking fire power like killington, Stratton and Stowe are the winners right now.


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I heard that Jay Peak's snowpack is largely intact.

The snow is there, but won’t be skiable until a few good snows. Naturals need about 6-8, glades a foot or so.


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Cool shot of the mountain with a clear, star lit sky tonight..



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My guess is that they will probably try to use the fill from the sides in order to make it less severe.  That's what we try to do with snowmobile trails.

Are they able to even get the construction equipment up there this time of year to even move the fill? That has to be a logistical nightmare.


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Saw some mountain ops posts this am around New England that convey desperation , hope , and patience . 
 
Jay peak probably acted like they got a rogue shower and mounds of snow are imminent lol . Tim Kelly does a decent JB impression on his forecast there sometimes
Many are closed today which seems prudent 
 
They need a snower badly before the new year 
Attitash got six inches of rain , can’t imagine Wildcat even has the resources to fix much fast there as all the condo rentals for holiday week @ Attitash may demand they use resources there (Wildcat is in middle of national Forrest and has no condos )
My guess is there are going to be higher risk of serious accidents by folks who don’t gauge the conditions well and the mountain will usually say “varied conditions / frozen granular) instead of icy death on some trails 

There’s going to be a lot of sugar coating it..people spend a lot of money for the holiday week and no one wants to hear “it sucks, stay home”. Mountain ops will have their work cut out. It was bad; really bad. Jay doesn’t even have enough down low on tramside to run the lifts out of that side. But snowmaking trails will be resurfaced, groomed and survive. You won’t really lose any. There was a ton of snow out there on the naturals and in the woods so that’s where it hurts. Put a foot of fake stuff over the crusty base tho, and it’ll come right back. I think we’ll get something in the next 7-10 up there that will bring it back to respectability at least. Killington south will be more of an issue IMO.

As far as TK, he’s not JB. He def will lean more optimistic and downplay the bad, but he knows that mountain climate better than anyone. And he’s been highly accurate this year, if not on the low side a few times. The mountain is not going to pay him to say it’s a death ribbon stay home, but he’ll be up front about rain, wind holds etc. good dude too from what I hear.


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This wont help:

Didn’t want to post the 0z run or 12 hours later because it’s not rainy enough??





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Disaster in no uncertain terms. Almost 100 percent open to bare spots here. Backyard at 1850’ has a stream running through it. Not that you ever want a hard freeze after, but it would have at least helped the water bars. Guns will go on tnrw afternoon, but after the best start since 18, this is a worst case scenario going into the holiday week.


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NYC just had the 7th warmest first half of December at 45°. Since the 91-20 climate normals are so warm, it only took a +3.8 departure which doesn’t seem like much. So a continuation of our region experiencing average temperatures which used to be normal for places to our south like Virginia. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 15	Missing Count
1	2015-12-15	52.0	0
2	2001-12-15	51.3	0
3	1998-12-15	50.6	0
4	1953-12-15	47.4	0
5	1951-12-15	46.9	2
6	2021-12-15	45.4	0
7	2023-12-15	45.0	0
-	2012-12-15	45.0	0
-	2011-12-15	45.0	0
-	1991-12-15	45.0	0
8	1999-12-15	44.8	0
9	1923-12-15	44.7	0
10	1891-12-15	44.6	0

7th warmest over half a month is fishing for stats to show warmth. There’s no doubt the past two years have been brutal in nyc metro, but this isn’t the stat to show it.


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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Diastah cutter for whites 

not thrilled as I have a rental after Xmas , gonna need plenty of fresh snow post 12/19

Not gonna lie; it's a disaster for the northern greens as well.  Only difference is greater ability to recover faster with upslope, but after the phenomenal start we have had, this one is gonna hurt.  I could see them going from almost 100 percent open, to 20 trails...and losing 4 days of snowmaking temps going into Christmas week blows too.   Water bars are going to be brutal next week.  Need to fake snow our way to a foot into next weekend to fix this.

Just shut off, but going to be another spectacular day…feel bad for all those people seeing pics of all this snow going into holiday week and it’s going to be wiped out Monday. Need another miracle save, but I think we’ve used them up for the season.


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Dumping again..




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With the addition of that backside snow from last night, I put together the north to south list of Vermont ski areas snow totals I could find for this most recent storm. Similar to what the modeling suggested, the spine of the Northern Greens seemed to do the best with accumulations. As the numbers show, even for a northern area like Burke, the storm total fell off substantially since they are so far east of the spine. Snowfall dropped off rather sharply for the Central Greens as well, and then there was sort of another tier of drop off south of Killington into the Southern Greens.
Jay Peak: 18”
Burke: 8”
Smuggler’s Notch: 17”
Stowe: 14”
Bolton Valley: 18”
Sugarbush: 8”
Pico: 8”
Killington: 8”
Okemo: 2”
Bromley: 4”
Stratton: 4”
Mount Snow: 2”

Might be another 2-3 from tonight if you would include it in the same storm. It was very localized coming up 242 where before the dip (about 3 miles from the base) it was just flurries, to a steady light, sometimes moderate snow here at 1850’.


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About an inch of the fake stuff so far tonight..snowing pretty good right now.


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Days of upslope

You called the last one so keep it coming.


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I’m headed up to Jay peak soon so I’m happy to see this. 

Almost whole mountain open today; though it’s very soft. It’s been an incredible start.


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Some more pics from today..as has been mentioned, the scenery right now is incredible. Almost as good as the early season skiing. I wish I had the talent to photograph like pf and jspin, because there’s some great shots to be had…









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It is still really, really good out there…weird skiing some trails that are always snowmaking and open on natural snow. You have to be on your toes…and this weekend now looking like a net gain and then some; fantastic start.








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Lets see if we can have no power at my office for the 3rd straight Monday!

I believe it..crazy the trees are still caked how many days later. Shows the weight and water content in these…




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6z was even more ridiculous lol.

I can see that turquoise paint of the 30 spot when I look outside up towards the sky overhead. Not gonna happen, but pulling half that and a 3rd major out of our ass is impressive. It finds a way this year.


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Love seeing that cold smoke rise when you have those perfect snowmaking temps…




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