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JasonOH

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Everything posted by JasonOH

  1. JasonOH
    From the damage assessment toolkit. Bassfield EF4 was 2 miles wide
  2. JasonOH
    Great twitter thread about the NWS warning process for at embedded supercell that produced the crazy radar imagery last night in SC.
  3. JasonOH
    Since I was confused earlier here is a tweet with the tracks
  4. JasonOH
    Bassfield is a prelim EF4. The trailing tornado is prelim EF3. (Thanks to Andy for the correction. I got my counties all messed up)
  5. JasonOH
    Tweet about the house that slid. Looks like it was unanchored on cinder blocks.
  6. JasonOH
    I’m going with not at all well built. I see strait nails on the bottom right and it looks like the whole thing is on cinder blocks not anchored to the ground in any way. I don’t see a concrete pad anywhere in the higher res image. There’s a chances they only rate it EF3 depending on the evidence on the ground.
  7. JasonOH
    The cars that were pushed into the basement may have been a factor in the collapse. Could be EF4 but NWS will definitely consider whether those cars contributed to the collapse.
  8. JasonOH
  9. JasonOH
  10. JasonOH
    There is research that shows it can be estimated by VROT and CC depth. My friend does research on it and posts some stuff on twitter. He will probably be posting about this tor at some point. https://twitter.com/ou_sams
  11. JasonOH
    Here’s the CC drop.
  12. JasonOH
    McComb, MS storm is moving hard right. Looks like it will move directly toward Hattiesburg.
  13. JasonOH
    You don’t need low level lapse rates typically, but if there’s a cap storms won’t get organized if they even initiate. In this case we need them to overcome the cap that’s evident in the 18z JAN sounding.
  14. JasonOH
    That actually isn't a debris signature here. It is over clear air and any CC drop not correlated with a circulation and dbz<40, so that specifically isn't debris.
  15. JasonOH
    Absolutely nuts to see this many QLCS tors ongoing.
  16. JasonOH
    Not necessarily. The TDS doesn’t look very tall since it’s not even visible from the fort Polk radar at 7k feet. It could be EF3+ but sometimes radar signatures are deceiving.
  17. JasonOH
    A great thread by a friend of mine talking about the OK portion of the severe threat tomorrow.
  18. JasonOH
    This is a great twitter thread about tomorrow and dynamics in general.
  19. JasonOH
    45% Sig Wind driven Moderate for tomorrow.
  20. JasonOH
    Mean wind isn’t on the hodograph (In that sounding) so storms should naturally turn right. The VBV doesn’t necessarily inhibit tornado genesis unless it’s below 750mb. I have noticed that on a lot of violent tornado days there is a bit (not a ton) of VBV at just above 700mb.
  21. JasonOH
    What BMX said is very true. The QLCS comes through too early Saturday for heating to be maximized with current timing so warm sector updrafts may not be robust enough to survive. This a could result in a very impressive QLCS and I personally think (Currently) damaging winds/embedded tors are the greatest threat Saturday.
  22. JasonOH
    One thing to keep an eye on is the mean wind being very close to or on the hodograph. That will cause storms to have trouble turning right and starting to strongly rotate.
  23. JasonOH
    When the sounding from 0z at FWD is modified to the 65/63 of DFW, SBCAPE increases to over 1000J/Kg. Definitely want to watch these storms closely as they enter the metroplex. Storm south of Fort Worth is a total mess right now, but does have a good environment ahead of it.
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