JasonOH
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Everything posted by JasonOH
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I’ll leave the 06z HRRR run here for posterity. I think the true analogue for how this will end up is 3/21/1932. Not sure what I would put the floor at, but it’s really high in my opinion. If instability is underdone like usual, I think we are in a world of hurt with the synoptic environment being as good as it is. Barring a morning MCS, which seems unlikely at this time, I think this one is a lock for a really bad day.
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That may have been the last pass for a bit. Next recon takes off at 2000z with an on station 2115z and will get a center fix a bit after that.
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I would ignore those very high SFMR readings. Just because it's not flagged doesn't mean it is accurate
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Thats 11mb extrap decrease in 1:20 so about 8mb/HR drop...
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Maybe. MPI is showing 890-900 so I think 905-910mb may be a good ceiling to work off of
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The eye has warmed significantly in the last 15 minutes. Next pass should be under 920mb.
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I also think the double wind maxima are just banding since they only show up in the SW and S sides. Thats also the side getting rekt by shear so I don’t think there’s a second eyewall that would survive there but not on the east side.
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Looks like low level SW shear. Storms can’t easily overcome that since it’s below the outflow. Until that abates the storm is going to have a flat west side.
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That’s super interesting. Thanks for posting that.
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The last pass looks to have actually had a downdraft. Pressure spiked and altitude dropped
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Not with SFMR of 145. Tend to need around 150 to get cat 5 with the standard 10% reduction.
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It’s all modeled based on physics. Big picture there’s high pressure west and NE so it will head north between them
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This wasn’t in the eyewall. It was over the delta (land) which caused it to get flagged
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Looks like the eye is circular now. Still not closed but now that it’s circular it should happen pretty soon.
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Still having mist in Wichita Falls. Cloud deck is pretty thick
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Isolated supercell about to cross into AL.
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That radar is far enough away for it to not be too useful. All you are seeing is the meso. Based on BMX, the tornado likely never handed off.
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I don’t think it has. It’s the same circulation. It’s just extremely close to the radar.
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I’m pretty sure it’s still a tornado. Based on radar I think it hasn’t lifted at all.
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https://twitter.com/ou_sams/status/1375202279641518082?s=21
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Western MS is rapidly clearing on satellite
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LCH 12z sounding is a classic loaded gun. Insane EML leads me to think today will be a very long day.
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I should have clarified more. The EML is not enough (at least on the soundings I’ve grabbed) to provide substantial capping. The EML isn’t quite warm enough at its base
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FWIW the whole SPC thing isn’t even meant for the general public at all. It’s guidance mainly for mets and to a lesser extent, emergency management (controls staffing levels). It wasn’t designed for general consumption but it’s gone that way over time. The good thing is that lots of TV mets use the 1-5 scale to communicate it.
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There’s a lack of an EML which is usually a sign for me of messy storm mode when it comes to Dixie. Don’t expect a D2 high.
