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Conway7305

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Everything posted by Conway7305

  1. Conway7305
    The HRRR is better the the NAM at this point
  2. Conway7305
    GFS holds
  3. Conway7305
    definitely south of 0Z
  4. Conway7305
    Euro ticked S on the r/s line
  5. Conway7305
    let’s see what the king has to say. However, short range models are probably better at this point like the HRRR.
  6. Conway7305
    GFS is not done running but looks like the snow bands ticks south. Good news.
  7. Conway7305
    right now it currently shows heaviest bands over Richmond
  8. Conway7305
    12z HRRR looks solid
  9. Conway7305
    I may be reaching but It did look like the 6z NAM came a hair S this run on R/S
  10. Conway7305
    HRRR (short range) model still shows heavy banding over us.
  11. Conway7305
    As we all expected the GFS has slowly caved. and heaviest banding is now in Fredericksburg.. 3-4 inches here for now unless we get more Shifts N Im guessing any hope of a last min S trend is over…
  12. Conway7305
    Euro OP is slightly N. 3 “ for RVA 5” near Short Pump Evem a slight adjustment S will add major accumulations.
  13. Conway7305
    I tend to agree as much as I don’t want too. IMO Fredericksburg to NOVA gets best accumulations. We get serval inches from front end then goes to sleet .
  14. Conway7305
    Slight N adjustment. Could be just wavering back and fourth a bit but could also be beginning of an adjustment to Euro/Nam. My guess is 4” for RVA with a lot of sleet
  15. Conway7305
    Icon looked good but we are very close to the mix line I guess the good thing about that is the heaviest precep is where the rain snow line sets up. we don’t have much wiggle room w/ that run.
  16. Conway7305
    hard to tell, but looks like the NAM didn’t change much.
  17. Conway7305
    I’m not able to view the 18z Euro. I know it’s running. Hopefully it’s a step in the right direction.
  18. Conway7305
    I’m thinking between 4-7” I could totally bust if warm air comes in from weaker HP to the N. This storm is more of an overrunning event and not a costal storm. Coastal tend to pull in warm air from the Atlantic.
  19. Conway7305
    I live near short pump so temps are slightly better NW of city Imagine if that slug of moisture after our initial wave was also snow. We would be talking feet of snow..lol
  20. Conway7305
    GFS has been the most steady with this storm. Not much waivering from run to run. I’ll have new respect if she wins. Euro has been back a fourth. Will see
  21. Conway7305
    It’s crazy
  22. Conway7305
    Is the NAM even accurate this far outt or is it usually a better model 24 hours to the event?
  23. Conway7305
    Unbelievable, the GFS throws us a HECS and the Nam gives us zilch. We are within 2 days of event.
  24. Conway7305
    The DAMN NAM…lol
  25. Conway7305
    It looks like the NAM slides the initial batch of moisture more NW instead of W.
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