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Conway7305

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Everything posted by Conway7305

  1. Conway7305
    DT keeps hyping this up every fluke run…lol 3-4 inches is my call. Back to reality. Euro is King and will always be king.
  2. Conway7305
    Damn
  3. Conway7305
    Unfortunately the low is further SE this run will be less accumulations.
  4. Conway7305
    Nothing really, maybe just a hair S on precip line
  5. Conway7305
    HRRR has wild swings. I only look at it during the event.
  6. Conway7305
    18z NAM running
  7. Conway7305
    CMC is also NW of 0z. This is a good trend here on 12z:)
  8. Conway7305
    The Euro did jog NW from 0z so an improvement
  9. Conway7305
    What worries me is the Euro is so far off from the NAM projection. Either the Euro caves or the NAM caves. I don’t recall ever seeing the Euro cave at 24 hr.
  10. Conway7305
    DT really honking now on higher amounts. He says high probability for 10-12”across RVA and more SE.
  11. Conway7305
    GFS does have a northerly component on precip field, good trend!
  12. Conway7305
    Good trends here for early 12z so far, maybe not drastic changes (minus NAM) but noticeable NW shift of precip field, at least for ICON.
  13. Conway7305
    What’s encouraging is the HRRR also juiced up with the NAM
  14. Conway7305
    Those are almost the amounts we saw on Saturday. lol
  15. Conway7305
    RIC didn’t we have a surprise storm in 2000 that came closer to coast then forecasters were thinking. Did it have similar setup as this?
  16. Conway7305
    998 slightly offshore at 48
  17. Conway7305
    still snowing at 45
  18. Conway7305
    Costal is helping increase precip field even into DC
  19. Conway7305
    Better confluence this run
  20. Conway7305
    Looks more N and robust at hour 30.
  21. Conway7305
    Agreed
  22. Conway7305
    NAM rolling now, let’s see if she is done with SE nudge.
  23. Conway7305
    Thanks RIC would have posted but had to step away for work.
  24. Conway7305
    I will say though the 6z euro did increase amounts very slightly NW from 0z so I think the east trend is done on euro. My guess is euro adjusts slightly NW and NAM continues to adjust SE to meet in the middle. RVA gets 2-4 with a max of 5”. It will be a cold snow so should pile up.
  25. Conway7305
    I don’t mean to be a downer but The NAM is also shifting the low SE past two or 3 runs. 3k is starting to look like the GFS. Regular NAM still good for us in RVA but is beginning to drop accumulations. I saw a small SE movement last night but odidn’t say anything because thought it was noise. Will see what 12z says. …:/ My guess is we see 2-4 inches
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