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Conway7305

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Everything posted by Conway7305

  1. Conway7305
    18z ECMWF Ensembles are a big improvement with trough placement further east on 13th leading up to event on 17th.
  2. Conway7305
    Some Big Hitters in there!
  3. Conway7305
    And another storm brewing at end of run
  4. Conway7305
    Only a few big Hits for our area but signal is there in long range. Hopefully that will change for the better. Plenty of time. I expect some wild OP runs in the coming days.
  5. Conway7305
    Encouraging Model Runs at 0zand 6z Our window may be Jan 15th 16th then again 22nd-23rd
  6. Conway7305
    Hopefully by Jan 20th we get a +PNA with a negative NAO/AO with strong Nino 2016 prime example. PNA Positive, NAO negative . Jan 15-16 we had a light event then epic week following on Jan 23rd we got absolutely dumped on . 16 inches fell Henrico. Hoping PNA can climb as forecasted to positive by mid month and we may start seeing some good action.
  7. Conway7305
    Yeah not much there with big hits. Hopefully that will change
  8. Conway7305
    Hopefully by Jan 20ish we start seeing a positive cycle. Here is the PNA forecast graph
  9. Conway7305
    The recipe for snow this year is a +PNA and -1-2 sigma NAO. Until both of those line up it’s gonna be hard. PNA may go positive around Jan 20th, let’s just hope -NAO can hold on.
  10. Conway7305
    Good news is, the 18z GFS lost the KY low so that may help us in time if storm is purely a coastal. Will help draw down some colder air
  11. Conway7305
    Will take P5 please!
  12. Conway7305
    there is still some big hitters in there
  13. Conway7305
    Not terrible look On GFS Ensembles
  14. Conway7305
    Can someone post the individual 18z GFS ensemble snow maps
  15. Conway7305
    Can someone please post the individual 12z GEFS snow total maps when they are available?
  16. Conway7305
    Looks like 12z GFS is more suppressed then 6z. In fact, last two or three runs have a gradual suppression. That’s goood for us. More suppression gets us in the higher totals. Will push the rain snow line south.
  17. Conway7305
    A little digital joy to the celebration today. Nice Fantasy Storm on the LR.
  18. Conway7305
    Let’s hope this can happen again. Seems all the atmospheric conditions are similar to 2016 once we hit early January Radar loop from Blizzard of 2016
  19. Conway7305
    Just for nostalgia, posted the radar evolution loop from the Blizzard of 2016. Hope we can score like that again
  20. Conway7305
    ok sorry didn’t post right for some reason lemme try again
  21. Conway7305
    GFS continues to show long range storm threat of some sort September 24th. This is the 3rd or 4th run in a row. Unlikely to be correct but worth mentioning.
  22. Conway7305
    https://x.com/mikebweather/status/1699549776075710916?s=46
  23. Conway7305
    18z GFS is SW of 12z at 150 GFS continues to adjust to a further southwest solution with a slower recurve. Last several runs clearly show the progression
  24. Conway7305
    18z GFS serious happy hour long range!!
  25. Conway7305
    Richmond starts off as mix then goes to all snow Monday pre dawn based off 6z run. Decent accumulations as well.
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