Conway7305

those are some insane totals. 20+

Still some Big hits on graphs. Would love to see the animation output for e50

Just corrected it, thx!

Well the 12z EURO was suppressed but does bring a storm up coast. Interesting to see what the ensemble members show. Good news is, there is a storm but different evolution. Will see lots of different solutions

0z EURO would break the snow records for Richmond Feb 4-5th if it verified. Still snowing at end of the run. 6z GFS Ensembles also look better for the same timeframe. I’m sure 12z will be different but great to see threats popping up!

The new Euro Weeklies run is easily the coldest overall yet again for mid Feb through early Mar. Once the BN temperatures set in Feb 12-19, they remain well below through the end of the run (Mar 4-12th) The week of Feb 19th is the coldest for that week of any run yet and may, when also considering El Niño climo, have the most winter storm potential in the Mid Atlantic of any single week per this run per h5: All checks: Miller A/GOM potential written all over it (combo of Aleutian Low/+PNA, -NAO, -AO, and moist subtropical flow/split flow):

Nice to see threats ahead of anticipated pattern change. If we get threats like this for 5-6 weeks beginning Feb 4th we are bound to score decent/ big from at least one storm. The pacific jet stream will move more equatorial and will easily tap the STJ moisture in split flow. The h5 pattern is beautiful and doesn’t seem to end on extended weeklies.

Yeah, will fluctuate a lot between runs. LR Snowmaps are just an idea not super accurate or personally worried about . One big storm will change it. The pattern still looks great through March 11th. We basically will have a month plus of opportunities hopefully. Love the split flow pattern and active STJ . Haven't seen that at all this winter or past few winters.

If only that would verify…haha.

Some HECS hits in there, nice!! I know it will change but good to see some big outputs being so far out. That time frame is before the pattern change really occurs.

Yep! Big time run for us validating the pattern change at least and ahead of schedule.

It’s actually really enjoyable now. Love the warm break. Calm before the big pattern change. Weeklies look absolutely fantastic for cold and stormy from about Feb 15th all the way to March 10th. I couldn’t draw up a better pattern.

Agreed, I never really expected much before Feb 15th. All the guidance has been around 8-15th for the transition to occur . No can kicking at least. NAO/AO is getting ready to tank from positive and should be negative by early Feb.

18z GFS has 1-2 inches for our area Friday. Short range models don’t agree says little to nothing. Doesn’t matter to me anyways…lol. Will be staying overnight on work in VA Beach…lol

Thanks for the detailed info. I always thought Mid Feb-March was the wheelhouse. NAO should be Negative by then and hopefully a +PNA.

Thanks for the update! I don’t mind a brief warmup. May play a round of golf end of next week. Rooting for a cold/snowy Feb-March. Hopefully the MJO can also swing back to 8-1-2 in Feb

I’ll be in VA Beach this Friday so nothing there. Still hope Feb pans out for us.

Seems like the snow band hasn’t moved north much

Heavy Snow in Henrico, Roads starting to cave

back to snow

A little sleet mixing in with snow now. Just got back to Henrico

I’m working down in Williamsburg today. Just started snowing.

I was never expecting 4-6. Let me be clear. Yesterday, several models began showing those higher totals. These were the short range models when the storm was a day away. Several models showed higher outputs for three consecutive runs at 3-4+ I wasn’t talking about fantasy LR runs or 360 GFS. Hence why I posted the maps, Also, why a lot of other posters here showed and posted the exact same maps I did . Yeah it was a brief output, but that’s what we do here. Follow the trends. Good or bad. I guarantee the next big “potential” storm on horizon, snowfall amounts will be posted here well before, even if it is “fantasy” That’s the fun of it.

Scroll back through the threads and you will see snow maps posted of the WRF and even the GFS. showing 4-6. BTW I live in Henrico.

Yeah I see that as well but also has it mixing with sleet/rain. I honestly just want to see some snowflakes. I think even a 1/2 inch would be generous. HRRR short range keeps getting worse for this area. Sad that a day ago we had 4-6…..lol