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Conway7305

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Everything posted by Conway7305

  1. Conway7305
    Heard the CMC was good as well
  2. Conway7305
    and that’s on top of whatever doesn’t melt this week
  3. Conway7305
    and this is only 130 hours out!
  4. Conway7305
    HUGE HIT GFS
  5. Conway7305
    https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1GcMxA2UCA/?mibextid=wwXIfr
  6. Conway7305
    Light Snow now falling in Spotsylvania near Central Park.
  7. Conway7305
    Beautiful! A coastal is basically showing on all major models.
  8. Conway7305
    Post some pics. I’m actually in Fredericksburg celebrating Christmas with my parents late. Our home is in short pump. Snow is on its doorstep here in Spotsylvania.
  9. Conway7305
    ha ha ha we got more than DC on this run I think
  10. Conway7305
    Good Trends! This first storm may just be the appetizer. https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1876047026221424731?s=46
  11. Conway7305
    This storm is big, still snowing in Kansas City.
  12. Conway7305
    RIC can you post the ensemble frames for next wknd storm
  13. Conway7305
    I thought the onset of snow was supposed to start after 8. Precip Shield still looks nice
  14. Conway7305
    HRRR still looks relatively healthy.
  15. Conway7305
    That sounds accurate
  16. Conway7305
    Also , just looking at the radar feed looks like most of Kentucky is snow right now, and models were showing ice more into central Kentucky. Will see
  17. Conway7305
    If HRRR is accurate. We see around 5 inches with more near Short Pump.
  18. Conway7305
    Next week, potential clean Miller A
  19. Conway7305
    I know everybody’s in storm mode but both the EPS in the GEFS show some really good storm opportunities next weekend possibly the following.
  20. Conway7305
    HRRR at this range is a decent short term model. basically anything less then 24 hours.
  21. Conway7305
    6z HRRR looks better for us. Especially on 10:1 snow totals. Waiting on 12z to run soon. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025010506&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
  22. Conway7305
    Ukie shows the best snow accumulations for our area , then the Euro. Maybe there can be a shift south on the short range.Still time.
  23. Conway7305
    It is crazy the discrepancy in models still, Euro, RGEM and Ukie, all have the heavy snow band much further south. At what point do we begin trusting the short range models over GFS and Euro?
  24. Conway7305
    yeah NAM did look better especially on back side.
  25. Conway7305
    Big bust potential unfortunately
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