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Conway7305

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Everything posted by Conway7305

  1. Conway7305
    Hopefully EPS disagrees with operational
  2. Conway7305
    Nice Inland low and rainstorm…:/
  3. Conway7305
    18z EPS improved, nice north trend
  4. Conway7305
    Forecasted 1031 HP seems to be in a good spot over GL. The block I was referring to was a traditional Greenland block from a negative NAO index. If the NAO is slightly negative then we can score. It tends to bring storms up the coast, but too negative will suppress storms south. NAO is positive/neutral now and may dip slightly negative next week. Hopefully, it should not suppress storms as much . I’m still learning all this. A ton is still over my head….lol
  5. Conway7305
    I was always skeptical about the suppressed storm look because there’s no real block above. Hopefully it will trend back but too much we will get mixing/rain issues.
  6. Conway7305
    2-4” storm will be nice followed by brutal cold! Let’s hope the big dog storms trend north. GFS will be running soon.
  7. Conway7305
    EPS mean for late next week system
  8. Conway7305
    EPS Mean for early next week. Wouldn’t take much to trend north with no real block in place
  9. Conway7305
    GEM still has a nice event 1/22
  10. Conway7305
    Also, Ukie may be a hit and GDPS is solid. Just need to Euro and GFS.
  11. Conway7305
    If only the CMC verified. Would be beautiful!
  12. Conway7305
    18z GFS 1/ 20 energy gives us a nice 3” but suppresses the 23rd storm. It’s really isn’t that much off track as Low still climbs the coast. Will see what ensembles say. Prob some decent hits still.
  13. Conway7305
    I felt it
  14. Conway7305
    I remember that storm back in the day. We found a big open parking lot and took the trucks out to spin around. I think Short Pump did a little better on accumulations than the city if I can remember correctly.
  15. Conway7305
    The NAO is neutral/slightly negative. There isn’t a true block in place. That could help or hurt us if the low trends more NW like the operational run. We need the low off coast of OBX.
  16. Conway7305
    Seems like a nice uptick from 0z
  17. Conway7305
    Not worried too much with ZR or precip types. still plenty of time for adjustments. I’m just glad Euro showed a storm. Will be interesting to see how many ensemble members are showing the different tracks.
  18. Conway7305
    RIC, when they come out, can you post the GFS ensemble members? Thanks bud
  19. Conway7305
    now we need the euro to get on board
  20. Conway7305
    This is good info. Thanks RIC! All we need is a clean Miller A and we are set
  21. Conway7305
    Nice uptick from 12z. 4 ensemble members snow 10+ with the winner being P23
  22. Conway7305
    Deep south snows on GFS. let’s see what the ensemble say. hopefully further north.
  23. Conway7305
    Congrats OBX, lol
  24. Conway7305
    Still early. Will take P9 or P10!
  25. Conway7305
    Nice both are in agreement of storm 1/21 seems to be favoring the Tidewater and southern areas but plenty of time
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