stadiumwave

I've been up in the air about whether a full blown SSW is needed. I've about decided....yes. Either full-blown reversal or a significant weakening event to shake things up.

I mentioned a couple of days ago there are signs of the 2nd week of Jan...8-15...being colder per organic methods. I'm pretty certain of a trough, but anomalies are always in question. Fingers crossed for those colder anomaly solutions if today's update.

12z EURO caved more to the GFS idea.

This may not look like much to some but the stratosphere forecast between Euro & GFS is a big difference:

It did but inititial model guidance had it moving way to fast which smart money was always on a slower propagation. Models finally corrected. Everyone needs to keep in mind that models are not stellar at MJO forecast. And during active MJO winters models usually suck pretty bad. If they get MJO wrong then the overall 500mb pattern is more than likely wrong as well. As a rule of thumb I'd be skeptical of model guidance outside of 5 days on specific systems & 7-10 days on overall global patterns.

I've read more whining on social media than I can bare. I've seen nothing change for the worse. The thought has always been a typical warmer El Nino DEC that toward the end of the month begins improving & into JAN has good winter potential. My analog package which consisted of 2 super El Ninos, 3 strong El Ninos, & 2 moderate had the typical Dec warmth. A nice JAN with colder conditions in SE & with a strong Aleutian low. Aleutian low weakens & retrograde in FEB & that month has the strongest high latitude blocking. Winter ends late FEB & transitions to a warmer March. Headed onto January the 0z long-range GFS looks great.

Not for NE.

EPS, DEC 23 Paul Roundy's "Low pass MJO, ER Constructed Analog", DEC 27th...looks similar:

The deeper into Dec we get Phase 7 is not a bad phase per Roundy's MJO guidance

A lot of signs emerging that the 2nd week of JAN will be a cold pattern for everyone east of say Kansas.

JMA Weeklies just updated. Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 & 4

Euro, Day 10 10mb 50mb

Best MJO tool available compliments of Paul Roundy. It has 360 days, click on phase & time of year & it'll give you the average composite. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html Here's early NOV phase 7 vs late DEC phase 7: NOV 7, Phase 7 DEC 27, Phase 7 OCT 8, Phase 8 DEC 27, Phase 8 It's the best MJO tool I've used for time of year phase expectations. There are other factors I know & it's not perfect but no MJO tool is. This is based on extensive research & Paul is a true MJO expert.

Best MJO tool available compliments of Paul Roundy. It has 360 days, click on phase & time of year & it'll give you the average composite. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html Here's early NOV phase 7 vs late DEC phase 7: NOV 7, Phase 7 DEC 27, Phase 7 OCT 8, Phase 8 DEC 27, Phase 8 It's the best MJO tool I've used for time of year phase expectations. There are other factors I know & it's not perfect but no MJO tool is. This is based on extensive research & Paul is a true MJO expert.

Euro Seasonal Update DEC JAN FEB MAR

Euro Seasonal Update DEC JAN FEB MAR

Interestingly, something similar occurred at the end of October. I'd look it up but ESRL is down at the moment. Obviously the implications are greater now than then...just thought it was interesting that it's a repeat.

Both daily SST's of today:

Even Roundy says there will be some brief cooling.

He just trolls winter lovers every now & then but he's usually actually targeting JB.

That thread is golden!! Really a great educated explanation of where things are more than likely moving! I scratch my head as to why @snowman19only posts certain tweets of Eric's. @snowman19I'm just messing with you! Ha!

JMA new December Forecast Most of big cold in Europe & Asia, but that's certainly not a blowtorch CONUS. JMA old DEC forecast Also is a reminder not to put much stock in Seasonal model updates coming up for JAN/FEB.

In light of recent blocking it makes one wonder why the models are failing so bad on predicting it.