stadiumwave
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Everything posted by stadiumwave
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Could be a perfect marriage if you think about it.
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First, I said my analIogs have less +PNA, & -EPO. Second, you're saying because they missed 2018-19 then it follows they automatically do the same? Caution...yes. But...inevitably miss the same way? Possible but not a given.
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Yea, but you can't just say that when you don't like what its showing. No one should take a seasonal model as gospel but common themes & trends should be noted. The signal may be muted but can't totally ignore.
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What are the odds CanSips, Euro, & JMA all terribly miss the entire seasonal forecast in NOV? It's not the gospel but not too terribly far off what my analogs are showing. JAN FEB These analogs do have less -EPO.
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DJF DEC JAN FEB That's impressive!
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JMA... I'm not where I can post it but I'll put the link and you'll can pull it up. January February is like absolutely cold. DEC Is strong Nino was Dec https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php
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CFS Weeklies sure changed for the first week of DEC
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So most models have MJO in either phase 8 or 1 to start DEC. It's not a very high amplitude but is this truly MJO? I know that the RMM does not always reflect reality.
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They've been awful!
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But that next Kelvin Wave, like those strong westerlies, will bump it up to 2.5. Oh wait, the westerlies didn't bump it up. I feel like for 6 weeks, it's always that next big thing....and this Nino will show its monstrosity....except it never does.
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UKMET
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Can you post January?
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Correct. Which would not be surprising. However, the weeklies have been pretty much worthless past day 10 for a while. So while we probably should have the expectation of warm I do not think the weeklies have a hold of the pattern
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It's only really super when it can sustain it on the ONI...3 mthn. Ain't happening.
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BINGO!!! I just do not think people are being honest with themselves. Too much desire for many to say "I told you so". The event is a hybrid type & not textbook anything,which is why the indexes are so skewed more with this event.
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You're overkill. Everyone needs to be objective. There's too much subjectivity your way & the other. The middle ground will win the day.
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Much better than Mondays update! And thanks!
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Anyone have the stratosphere forecast graph from today's Euro Weeklies?
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Hmmm....
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I love Paul, but I've noticed the same with his tools. And he has been using big adjectives about the Nino with everything that occurs (+IOD, last wind burst...etc.) & its resulted in pretty much nothing each time. I wonder why he's not being a little more cautious with his descriptive terms? He's not usually the "hype" type.
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Looks good to me. I'd take that DEC anyday verses what a Nino DEC can be.
