stadiumwave

Exactly! It's coupled but I disagree on how well it's coupled. I think Eric exaggerated his point. And while its coupled, it is its own flavor. To have as strong of an El Nino, based totally on SST's, & the main forcing to be that far west is indeed new territory based on the data we have. So, appealing to 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16 (which all had greatest forcing east of dateline with 97-98 being the furthest east) and then laughing is kind of strange. My take on this winter is nothing will surprise me. I think there's some reasons those who desire a blowtorch winter should be very concerned & those who love cold/snowy winters to be as well. A humble approach would be the best approach with this.

They will warm but not big time, or or at least based on what I'd consider "big-time".

You're conveniently calling an El Nino "east-based" based on SST's when in fact the main forcing has been west of the dateline the entire time. I'm surprised that Eric who has spent soooooo much time in the past pointing out how much that matters seems to say it means nothing now???? So list of things that "no longer" matter now: 1. SOI 2. MEI 3. Location of main forcing Wow! We're rewriting all the literature. Thanks

Yoda has spoken!

Paging Webb...

This winter will not be 2009-10 in my opinion but the progression of that winter should be remembered. Because it seems like when it gets warm in NOV anymore folks seem to want to write winter off which is nonsense. NOV, 2009 Temp anomalies 500mb NOV 1-10 NOV 10-20 NOV 20-30 DEC 1-10 DEC 10-20 DEC 20-31 DEC Temp Anomalies DEC 500mb DEC 15-31, the 2nd half of Dec was the coldest. Again, I'm in no way saying this winter will be a repeat of 2009-10. I'm simply saying don't get excited or despair this month. Let it all unfold. Don't jump to conclusions either way.

As a rule of thumb, we all know most El Ninos have that warm DEC either way but if it's a cold NOV it's a given DEC will warm.

It's a process. A repeated pattern like that will keep normal to below normal anomalies in the southern half over a period of time. Wave after wave simply moves across the CONUS. That's not a terrible pattern heading into DEC. I've seen worse for sure. Today's 12z EPS:

Jet ends up undercutting ridge in the 10-15 day range. A repeat of that would be welcomed heading into DEC.

Yea, that's what I was thinking, lol

The forcing comparison is just massive! I keep asking myself why some will not mention this? Like it doesn't matter? It matters!!! Great post on all Grit!

SST's from Euro update for DJF: DEC JAN FEB

Another look. Webb may have a meltdown because JAN/FEB is rocking! Typic warmish Nino DEC. DEC JAN FEB FWIW, Euro drastically changed NOV from it's previous forecast. So keep in mind a lot can happen in a month that the models cannot foresee.

Why does Eric never mention that the forcing is still much further west than you'd expect for an east based El Nino??? It's official! Eric Webb has canceled winter, so we a might as well spare ourselves, lol. I hope it's a freakish cold/snow fest, not simply because I love it, but simply to hold it over Webb, lol.

This is definitely a hybrid & does not fall into classical categories. The west warming keeps it from being classical east & my suspicion is that's one reason why this Nino has consistently wanted to keep the forcing further west.

Really? Why would Eric allow Bastardi's calling for a cold winter every year bother him? Like, who cares. I like Eric but I've watched him be unnecessarily snarky to many. BTW, his issue with Bastardi is not so much his AGW views.

He always does & its annoying! He has constant consternation aimed at Bastardi.

Yea, it's not bad. With the ENSO look I was expecting fantasy 500mb look, lol.

CFS Weeklies, AO & NAO forecasts.

One thing to keep in mind with these seasonal forecasts. A lot can change in a month for sure. Here's the October updates forecast for NOV: Here's the NOV update for NOV: Just a wee bit different.

The ENSO looks further west to me than the October update. When I saw that I was expecting some spectacular 500mb. So, really you're correct.

Cansips...not real good. The ENSO look is "almost" modoki-ish, yet the 500mb is much worse than last update. DEC JAN FEB MAR From the ENSO look I would've expected JAN to be much better. DEC is an improvement.... ...but JAN/Feb took a step back from October update. MAR looks good. To be honest I just dont have a lot of confidence in seasonal guidance whether it be good or bad.

Just saw this: I just wish i knew where they got it?? They are the only ones I've seen have access. ????

Yea, I was so bummed last night when it did not update on tropical tidbits. I'm just mad today because it still has not, lol.