stadiumwave

FWIW, 15 day changes

I am trying to figure out,is someone really saying it is not? And if so how can they say that?

Paul Roundy's experiential MJO forecast tool has this look by DEC 14th...just updated. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.htmlGree Very suppressed SER with big time -EPO & bridge block to Greenland.

https://x.com/judah47/status/1992608265507946858?t=ykLy8c-MkGuGLusD9eZevQ&s=19

Yep, its about the cold & pattern of the period. Obviously I posted a 7 day mean of 2013 & only one specific frame of today's 12z GFS. The system on the GFS is very similar to the system in early DEC 2013. Not making a point about the entire winter.

12z suites showing a big cold dump in rockies, great plains & midwest with a pattern very early DEC 2013 looking. The pattern produced some ice & snow in the MW & OV as well back in 2013. Below you can click the link & watch the 2m Temp progression over that week. Underneath image you will click on "Go Forward one day": https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.day.pl?var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=Surface&iy[1]=&im[1]=&id[1]=&iy[2]=&im[2]=&id[2]=&iy[3]=&im[3]=&id[3]=&iy[4]=&im[4]=&id[4]=&iy[5]=&im[5]=&id[5]=&iy[6]=&im[6]=&id[6]=&iy[7]=&im[7]=&id[7]=&iy[8]=&im[8]=&id[8]=&iy[9]=&im[9]=&id[9]=&iy[10]=&im[10]=&id[10]=&iy[11]=&im[11]=&id[11]=&iy[12]=&im[12]=&id[12]=&iy[13]=&im[13]=&id[13]=&iy[14]=&im[14]=&id[14]=&iy[15]=&im[15]=&id[15]=&iy[16]=&im[16]=&id[16]=&iy[17]=&im[17]=&id[17]=&iy[18]=&im[18]=&id[18]=&iy[19]=&im[19]=&id[19]=&iy[20]=&im[20]=&id[20]=&monr1=12&dayr1=1&monr2=12&dayr2=1&iyr[1]=2013&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&label=0&skip_vector=&cint=&lowr=&highr=&istate=0&proj=North+America&xlat1=&xlat2=&xlon1=&xlon2=&custproj=Cylindrical+Equidistant&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

The can be a lag. I know Roundy has said such a common mistake is to think MJO phase correlation automatically or immediately shows up. Both are a mistake to think.

To your point...DEC, 2010. First half of DEC was in low-amp MJO phases 3,4,5,6 (blue line is DEC): Here are the 2m Temps for DEC 1-20: Certainly other factors can override MJO.

We too quickly buy as gospel LR guidance, which in my experience seems to be at its worst in the winter months. Best to take warmth or cold with a grain of salt.

Great post! CFS: AO

Dump west...bleed east

Winter cancel? 0z EPS DEC 4

You have the greatest hits of subjective posters (3 of them) feeding the general pessimism from the others. I mean I get it...typical year on weather forums, lol.

You are about as objective as a politician answering questions during a press conference.

Unless this data is wrong, then you are incorrect. 1983-84 winter was a -QBO winter.