stadiumwave

Amazing how quite You were amazingly quiet yesterday.

Of course, there is always a large spread in LR. I said the mean. The mean had been going above normal for several days...it is not now. That is why I shared it. There are a lot of members much, much weaker, even implying a possibility of maybe future warming.

Mean never gets to normal at all now throughout the forecast period.

The person who submitted a paper on this is who the bottom quote is from. Research is based on large SOI drops with strongest correlation of i think 21 points or greater. This drop was 39 points...so pretty strong correlation. Based on the research.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1993264759794282993?t=BTUYDs0rjkTSzBtZFlACrg&s=19

15 day change

What SER, lol??

Ensemble confirmation: GEFS 0z, 12z, tonight 0z And we're putting stock in 3-4 weeks model output??? Lol

Look at the Canadian 0z, 12, 0z comparison in temps. Under 120 hrs with that kind of change is criminal

And it is not just GFS...Canadian does the same...much colder

I mean...this one little detail south of Alaska is pretty massive! Whoops...

If models are going to be this bad its going to be a long winter. Last 4 GFS runs for this weekend

Watch East Asia (EAR)

RRWT model, which is based on rosby waves (Josh Herman's model), has persistently shown a cold Christmas for a good while. This was yesterday's update for dates Dec 24-28: 500mb

Change of Euro OP over last 3 runs for late period I figured it was worthy to mention since some of the other runs were.