stadiumwave

Agree on the end of month, but disagree on JAN. The best analogs have JAN as the coldest month. So, I think based on the law of averages, we have a decent shot of seeing at least a period of winter in JAN.

From Paul Roundy: "Base state supports Bering Strait and Greenland blocking, with troughing in the eastern US. A fast component of the MJO signal moves through Indian basin to Maritime Continent 15-30 Dec offsetting the cold eastern US signal and potentially forcing a period of warm anomalies in the eastern US."

Go look at all -QBO La Nina's that had any early strat warming (not full blown SSW). January is the coldest month with thise analogs unlike the +QBO LA Nina's that basically all end winter early JAN. No way to know if it shakes out that way but it is interesting nonetheless.

Some of the AI models are radically different on Day 10. It will be interesting to see which is modeled better.

I have thought all along we couple be looking at the end if DEC or early JAN.

There will be a warmup I think but hopefully short-lived.

Probably brief spike before a storm & does not see it clearly. But per Bering Sea rule, expect a ridge in the east at the end of month. Could be temporary but not exactly sure.

EURO Seasonal updated...here is Dec

If you're on the east coast more moisture will be involved. Mostly everyone else its clipper type systems...which can produce, but not your big winter storms. The exception may be potential around the 12th.

Ha, don't think so..

I honestly wonder if winter forecasts should be redone & use ENSO neutral analogs. This La Nina is dying fast!!! SOI is absolutely tanking

I think we are going to see plenty of cold but the pattern is going to be overall dry...maybe clippers...etc. I think the 12z CMC has a better handle on the next 10 days over the GFS. It's not a great winter storm pattern by any means.

N. PAC Current 30 day change

SOI has been tanking since NOV 23. Only one day of substantial + since then.