stadiumwave
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
stadiumwave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2117490059796484274?a=37IteOi_Ly62Baqdd2I&s=19 -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
stadiumwave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
stadiumwave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
stadiumwave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Makes you wonder if indeed the large SST anomaly in 1&2, 3 contributed to the SSW if it will also repeat. If that was a contributor to current warming then I think its inevitable it will occur again. If it does not occur again, then its likely that was not the cause of the current warming. But I would caution also, the same people warning about not taking seriously the stratosphere forecasts when it was showing a warming, need to be just as cautious about a long-range super recovery forecast. Bias is ridiculous. Recovery is a guarantee without other hits, and strong SPV would not be unusual considering the setup, however, could very well be overdone as well. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
stadiumwave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Great thread on SSW research & I screenshot Paul's reply in case someone misses it. Found interesting. He links a paper. https://x.com/Recretos/status/2115980492876984698?a=SxXaM4VN5NxdefH8xsg&s=19 -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
stadiumwave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
https://x.com/MeteoMark/status/2115836527712338188?a=JR30_wRbbVdstqpwhLw&s=19 I don't think Mark understands that a SSW now does not mean the SPV will not recover. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
stadiumwave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I shared his X post & that was it. Glad you & Snowman19 assume you know why, lol. I cannot imagine just scanning every post to see if maybe someone is implying something about a cold winter. You people are sick. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
stadiumwave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
https://x.com/webberweather/status/2115404066482475097?a=12X_0gnBmHbDtI1jRmA&s=19 -
Yes, it is. Not as torch as it could be though.
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In other non-SPV news...maybe lol CFS weekilies...getting into DEC so at least interesting to look. DEC 1-11, 500mb Also notice NAO & AO take the initial dips & looks like another possible early DEC. Just stuff to yawn & watch.
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Maybe some of them are. I am not sure what you're referring to. I don't follow the METS much but mostly the science nerds. The event itself interests me regardless of outcomes. It is pretty rare. And no one knows how it may or may not affect DEC much, but its certainly not beyond the realm of possibilities that it can. I just think it's wrong to be dogmatic either way. One can speak in probabilities & that's fine but 100% no one knows.
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Disagree. Regardless of the outcome the potential event does not have a large sample. Anyone saying "they know" either way, is just slinging crap against the wall hoping it will stick.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
stadiumwave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I am sure it will change that far out one way or the other. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
stadiumwave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
72 with the strong -PDO as well. Pretty sucky winter.

