stadiumwave

12z EPS has persistent cold for though the end.

Was not referring to you. SS media. Yours is a forecast, the ones I am referring to are just warm biased nuts.

Ummm Its strange, it took one model run for several SS media folks to think they had the strat all figured out after one forecast spike: "Brief SSW, then raging SPV coming." 3 days of weakening trends & no one but one SS media guy saying anything or correcting. SPV is giving everyone the middle finger.

Amazing how quite You were amazingly quiet yesterday.

Of course, there is always a large spread in LR. I said the mean. The mean had been going above normal for several days...it is not now. That is why I shared it. There are a lot of members much, much weaker, even implying a possibility of maybe future warming.

Mean never gets to normal at all now throughout the forecast period.

The person who submitted a paper on this is who the bottom quote is from. Research is based on large SOI drops with strongest correlation of i think 21 points or greater. This drop was 39 points...so pretty strong correlation. Based on the research.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1993264759794282993?t=BTUYDs0rjkTSzBtZFlACrg&s=19

15 day change

What SER, lol??

Ensemble confirmation: GEFS 0z, 12z, tonight 0z And we're putting stock in 3-4 weeks model output??? Lol

Look at the Canadian 0z, 12, 0z comparison in temps. Under 120 hrs with that kind of change is criminal

And it is not just GFS...Canadian does the same...much colder

I mean...this one little detail south of Alaska is pretty massive! Whoops...

If models are going to be this bad its going to be a long winter. Last 4 GFS runs for this weekend