stadiumwave

Hmmm....

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ I recommend Paul Roundy's site as well. You can look at the MJO in different portions of each month based off research. Both phases 7 & 8 have their best responses in weeks 3&4 of DEC https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

BOM agrees...almost identical

Even the European model as well. Today 0z verses the 17th 0z. Am I saying we will not have massive SER problems? Nope but I am not saying we definitely will either.

For that reason, the climatology factor built into models is a factor in the low accuracy for now even in the medium range. GFS for 11/28 from the 14th model runs to today. Clearly, it is the expected to the observation:

Again, yea. Maybe you did not read my post closely. Last year was a La Nina. There was a deep -PDO. I predicted a -PNA dominated winter & a very warm, low snow east & several did. Despite that, the winter defied the odds & was dominated by +PNA. All I am saying is that its weather....not always just simple. So a little humility is needed.

Nearly a guidance is going more amped through 7 & then moving into 8 now. Canadian output is the lone exception

So what was your guess last year during a La Nina dominated by +PNA? PDO was even more negative at this point last year. Could it be more -PNA? Yes! Is it a given? No!

Can't you see how terrible that looks?? Its gotta be wrong until there's a run that has a deep trough in Cali & raging ridge in the East....then it's gospel. But do not worry, it is all objective with no subjectiveness at all. BTW, the posters I am messing with (you know who you are) I mean it all in total fun. You guys are actually really good posters!!

Locked & loaded

Phase 7 in DEC is usually a decent phase though??

Look at Region 1 & 2

Good ol Nina