stadiumwave

It is weather! One's experienced weather in one's short life or extremely small period of record keeping is just...meh.

I just do not buy Phase 6 being cold

Ha, just coming to post. Models suck

Yes,started changing a couple of days ago rather rapidly. Been the same story since NOV

0z Euro....lol

Not much, & certainly trending weaker, which has been a repeating trend since NOV. I honestly do think it will make a difference either way, but I am just saying...what people point out & what they ignore is comical.

I wonder if all the people that ran to Twitter like a kid to post how strong the SPV would be (assuming it meant warmth), will be as eager to post the same data has significantly changed? WED Update THURS Update FRI Update

This is why watching SPV forecasts very far out at all will bite you, if you're predicting by using them. Make note of trends like a new weakening verses yesterday & many more members after that versus yesterday. Changes a lot & has since NOV. yesterday's

I guess you failed to read...Merry Christmas

Unless there is strong coupling between the stratosphere & troposphere it really does not matter.

I remember posting that all the early strat warming, -QBO, La Nina winters had JAN as the coldest month in the analog package. The 3 years that had an actual early SSW (this year being one) it took on average 4 weeks before a noticeable affect on pattern. All 3 year had an effect on the troposphere pattern. Now, I am not saying JAN will be colder than DEC at all but historically the analogs suggested the odds of having some winter in JAN were higher than average. Therefore, if models have not gone bonkers today & holding forth fools gold & the flip is legit, is this a case we all died by model data instead of looking skeptically at the model data? If a more wintry like pattern emerges should we be all thay surprised?

Its a total flip of the pattern being advertised yesterday to today. The 500mb look is just ridiculously different...a flip if there ever was one.

Actually not the -QBO years with anykind of early strat warming. JAN is the coldest in that analog package. Will not be this year but just saying.