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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    It is unimpressive for the immediate metro area, obviously it depends where you live in the subforum.
  2. HVSnowLover
    I think sleet and freezing rain are possible for parts of the area especially NW of the city but I'm still having a hard time seeing a snow event from this, at least not until any models other than the GFS show this.
  3. HVSnowLover
    I'm not even going to let the 18Z GFS reel me in to think next weeks storm could be remotely interesting in our area although it does have some support from the CMC in terms of the WAA precip possibly being wintry
  4. HVSnowLover
    Yea because of the temps issue I get where you are coming from although I think if it's west enough to snow in the Hudson Valley it will be strong enough to bring the snow line down to I95. We are far away from that solution right now.
  5. HVSnowLover
    Not so much cold but definitely snowy, the coast had a great run in terms of intense snowstorms.
  6. HVSnowLover
    Agree a weak low at or east of the benchmark is rain/snow showers. This needs to be sub 990 and tracking inside the BM for the majority of the subforum to have a chance. Until I see that this is a non event.
  7. HVSnowLover
    We know storms tend to trend west so the models are really not in an awful spot for 4 days out, I just don't know if a scraper will do it temp wise for the area. We probably need a bomb closer to the coast in this type of scenario which is looking more and more unlikely but still not impossible.
  8. HVSnowLover
    A bit more west and bombing out earlier would be ideal but yea too much more west and we are going to get the boats ready and the way this winter is going that wouldn't shock me.
  9. HVSnowLover
    GFS verbatim is warm for the coast but with a low in that spot at that strength I think this would be mostly snow for everyone. This could be big if it bombs out a bit earlier
  10. HVSnowLover
    GFS way NW
  11. HVSnowLover
    On the GFS almost the entire state of New York has over 24 inches of snow in the next 3 weeks while NYC gets 1 inch.
  12. HVSnowLover
    That's not actually that awful considering the time of year.
  13. HVSnowLover
    Hope it verifies, would be nice to at least see parts of the northeast get a winter
  14. HVSnowLover
    GFS is a big hit next weekend for the interior and close to being big for the interior sections of the subforum, would favor inland but this one could still get interesting
  15. HVSnowLover
    Yes but as others have said yesterdays storm had a primary in Michigan, if the low tracks to the SE of us it can snow without artic air in January.
  16. HVSnowLover
    Clearly marginal and a dynamics dependent storm, it depends on the dynamics, if it blows up and hits the area then it could snow, the setup isn't great but it's possible.
  17. HVSnowLover
    You don't need an artic high to snow in the middle of winter, we've seen places to our south and east get a snow event two weeks ago. You just to get lucky with a storm track here or there, overall most storms will track to our NW but it can still snow in a bad pattern especially in the middle of winter
  18. HVSnowLover
    Yea especially at this time of the year, I agree I'd rather a more active pattern with a chance of snow and some moderation than having constant cold. The constant cold is good for a snowpack but beyond that it's not that enjoyable at least to me.
  19. HVSnowLover
    Yea it depends where in the city but overall the city seems to generally do worse than all the regions around it. Yes parts of SI and parts of the Bronx are the ideal places in the city to get snow but overall the urban heating influence seems to limit accumulations in any kind of marginal events.
  20. HVSnowLover
    The 6Z GFS is close to this depiction although the surface temps are warm at the immediate coast which appears to be limiting totals
  21. HVSnowLover
    Dutchess County is nothing like adirondack park climo wise but it's also nothing like NYC. NYC is the absolute worst part in the state and really in the entire region for snow due to the ocean influence plus urban heating influence (places to the west and even in recent winters east of the city do better)
  22. HVSnowLover
    I always thought anything outside of Uptons forecasting zone is not really considered the Metro Forum. Ulster and Dutchess are tricky geographically, certainly climo wise they are closer to Albany than NYC
  23. HVSnowLover
    GFS looking colder and flatter so far for Saturday, interesting it's not trending toward the Euro Ends up similar to 18Z, started off colder but was also a little slower. I still think the signal on the GFS setup would be screaming front end thump but from what I've seen the Euro is not as favorable
  24. HVSnowLover
    I am not sure why there is so much negativity, almost every model is showing the biggest snowfall of the season next weekend (yes it will change to rain but baby steps) and then after that they get cold. Not every storm will be snow for the coast of course but there are signs of it at least getting more interesting.
  25. HVSnowLover
    It's in the 60s up to Albany, I don't think I've ever seen this level of warmth at night in January
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