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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    Models are delaying the timing a bit, on the plus side if the front end is at night it may help with temps/totals
  2. HVSnowLover
    Yea it depends where in the city but overall the city seems to generally do worse than all the regions around it. Yes parts of SI and parts of the Bronx are the ideal places in the city to get snow but overall the urban heating influence seems to limit accumulations in any kind of marginal events.
  3. HVSnowLover
    The 6Z GFS is close to this depiction although the surface temps are warm at the immediate coast which appears to be limiting totals
  4. HVSnowLover
    Dutchess County is nothing like adirondack park climo wise but it's also nothing like NYC. NYC is the absolute worst part in the state and really in the entire region for snow due to the ocean influence plus urban heating influence (places to the west and even in recent winters east of the city do better)
  5. HVSnowLover
    I always thought anything outside of Uptons forecasting zone is not really considered the Metro Forum. Ulster and Dutchess are tricky geographically, certainly climo wise they are closer to Albany than NYC
  6. HVSnowLover
    GFS looking colder and flatter so far for Saturday, interesting it's not trending toward the Euro Ends up similar to 18Z, started off colder but was also a little slower. I still think the signal on the GFS setup would be screaming front end thump but from what I've seen the Euro is not as favorable
  7. HVSnowLover
    I am not sure why there is so much negativity, almost every model is showing the biggest snowfall of the season next weekend (yes it will change to rain but baby steps) and then after that they get cold. Not every storm will be snow for the coast of course but there are signs of it at least getting more interesting.
  8. HVSnowLover
    It's in the 60s up to Albany, I don't think I've ever seen this level of warmth at night in January
  9. HVSnowLover
    It's only been 1 winter and 1 month that has been awful after many good years in a row. At least in terms of referring to snowfall but personally I don't mind the warmth that much, I really care mainly about snow amounts rather than sustained cold (it's fairly rare to have a sustained snowpack at the coast anyway)
  10. HVSnowLover
    GFS is wild for next weekend, storm starts out below freezing with 2-4 inches of snow (6+ for the northern suburbs) and then NYC/LI end up in the 50s. Then gets really cold behind the storm, this may be the pattern changer
  11. HVSnowLover
    The primary is likely going near or to the lakes, the question is the secondary development, I agree I would lean this is a snow to rain event at best.
  12. HVSnowLover
    My guess is that is at or close to its peak warmth given snowfall totals but yea you can definitely see from the snowfall map the gradient is right over the city. This will change many times anyway in the next week
  13. HVSnowLover
    Yea thats a miracle, I would take what the 18Z GFS showed It's got a chance, if nothing else the high in place should allow for front end snow, if the blocking is strong enough to force redevelopment well to our south then it's a big storm, if not it's snow/ice to rain.
  14. HVSnowLover
    Next weekends setup looks like the best chance for a front end thump we've had, of course it may get worse closer to the event
  15. HVSnowLover
    Yea I don't think anyone south of around I84 has gotten much of any snow so far this winter
  16. HVSnowLover
    Surprised the 6Z NAM didn't reel people back into talking about this one, possibly a fluke run but will be interesting to see how far north the precip makes it with this.
  17. HVSnowLover
    GFS clobbers SNJ if it's snow. NYC meh.
  18. HVSnowLover
    RGEM looks terrible outside of SNJ
  19. HVSnowLover
    Islip should do well in this kind of setup they usually do. Atlantic City will probably have mixing issues but just to the west of them in SNJ could be the sweet spot.
  20. HVSnowLover
    If you live in the catskills I'd be more closely tracking the weekend storm than this, this won't get that far north.
  21. HVSnowLover
    This thing is juicy and bombing out, this would be a SECS if it was 75 miles more NW. This just seems like the winter the metro area can't get one to hit.
  22. HVSnowLover
    NAM is coming in more north and amped, big hit up to CNJ and Eastern LI. City is still meh
  23. HVSnowLover
    There's definitely cold air around, this weekends storm is showing that, we are just a bit too far south to access it in this pattern.
  24. HVSnowLover
    GFS keeps flirting with making this interesting up to NYC but I feel like it's a tease
  25. HVSnowLover
    Yea in the old days I would've seen this weekend as a disaster but at this point I don't care if it's in the mid 60s in the middle of winter, I don't mind if it's comfortable out and it looks like we may not even get that much rain being on the southern edge of the precip field
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