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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    This is the best setup we've had within 48 hours of the event, the other storms have all had big issues with the mid level warming. This storm is snow or rain without the ice threat so I think places just NW of the city will make out a lot better this time around, the city itself is iffy because of surface temps but if it's heavy enough could be a quick 1-3.
  2. HVSnowLover
    The dry slot is helpful in this case. This about as good as a deal we can get with a low tracking to the lakes and SE winds, if we escape with a mostly snow event.
  3. HVSnowLover
    I agree the person yesterday who said this could be mainly rain at JFK and mainly snow at EWR. The mixing line is really right over northern parts of the city on the models during the main precip. However the precip is not heavy enough where it will be 6 inches vs 1 inch but given the impact of evaporational cooling and no sign of a sneaky mid layer showing up as of now I think 1-3 inches from the Bronx north is a solid call right now. South of there it's more iffy.
  4. HVSnowLover
    The main issue I see cuitting back totals is the lack of qpf more than temps, this was always a snow to rain situation but earlier runs were showing much more qpf, storm is getting drier and drier If anything the recent runs on the American models have been colder, this is starting to look like mainly a snow event Northwest of the city before precip shuts down, the city is very much on the fence with precip type.
  5. HVSnowLover
    I think the upside for the city is about 2-3 inches, I get where you are coming from in this winter that would be a huge event lol. However I'd say more likely about an inch for the city.
  6. HVSnowLover
    Seems the warm air comes in just in time to make this a non event for the city although its still close, seems its trended a bit better for NW of the city with less rain. Overall the system is looking more and more disorganized
  7. HVSnowLover
    Forget initial thump, this storm keeps having less and less overall QPF each run, seems like light snow to light rain Looking more and more like a pure cutter which might actually be good for this area in terms of not getting a drenching rain
  8. HVSnowLover
    This storm is going to cut, it's never been a good setup and this is definitely a snow to rain event, the only question or thing that keeps a me a little intrigued is the strength of the initial CAD and if precip moves in faster than modeled. So far this winter nothing has really worked out so would lean toward an inch or less event changing to rain more than an initial thump but I can see where an initial thump could happen in this setup.
  9. HVSnowLover
    Euro has never liked this storm for our area, it's why I wasn't too excited even when the GFS looked good a few days ago.
  10. HVSnowLover
    Yea where I am I might be able to hang on to 33-35 Snow for a little while, once it's above 35 it's complete white rain or just rain. Either way looks like a NW of I287 storm again only this time at least for those areas it will be snow instead of ice
  11. HVSnowLover
    Yea I see what you mean, the wind coming off the ocean is a disaster in this setup. Phl/DC may do better than NYC in this kind of setup.
  12. HVSnowLover
    Precip maps show snow until hour 120, however the surface is torching so its white rain for the City/LI
  13. HVSnowLover
    Yes 3-4 inches would be awesome in this winter, 1-3 inches would be the biggest snowfall this winter for most of the immediate metro area lol
  14. HVSnowLover
    CMC is about 4 hours of moderate snow for the city before the flip
  15. HVSnowLover
    I can remember several storms like this that were 3+ ending in rain, most recently was November 2018. I would prefer if precip was coming from the south rather than the west but I still like this setup more than any we've had so far this winter.
  16. HVSnowLover
    I could be, we'll find out Saturday. The setup could also change a lot, I'm just basing it off what the 0Z GFS is showing
  17. HVSnowLover
    The best forcing on the GFS is over NJ and NYC, I really doubt heavy precip is going to flip to rain in the middle of the night with 850s and 925 temps below freezing but I could be wrong.
  18. HVSnowLover
    The GFS is likely overdoing the warming of the boundary layer, 850s are really cold. The setup on the GFS is a 2-5 inch snowstorm easily for the city with more to the NW despite what the verbatim maps may show.
  19. HVSnowLover
    It was actually a really good run for the coast in the early 2010s but lately everything has returned to normal
  20. HVSnowLover
    There is a major CAD signature, the 850 line is down in the Central MA. NYC is just such a horrible location for snow in these setups, the boundary layer warms up so fast at the immediate coast (of course there have been some exceptions to this)
  21. HVSnowLover
    It was colder but decreased QPF and also has the boundary level warm at the coast however we know the GFS can get warm biased with the boundary layer. The setup the GFS is showing I think is a solid 3-6 inches at least for the Metro area. The fact the Euro is still way NW and more amped with the primary tells me the setup is still far from decided
  22. HVSnowLover
    They seem to usually work out less well though, I always trust front end snow more than back end snow to really happen even though it stinks when front end snow gets washed away
  23. HVSnowLover
    Yea this is definitely starting off as a snow event with temps likely in the 20s at the start of the storm with that high. I have fairly high confidence even at 120 hours out that this will be the most significant snowfall of the season for most of the region which really isn't saying much with the way this winter has gone lol.
  24. HVSnowLover
    Precip not as heavy especially on recent runs but that could change or adjust a bit.
  25. HVSnowLover
    This seems to be trending toward a typical SWFE. Typical 2-5 inches of snow ending as light rain, may not even change to rain NW of the city before precip ends.
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