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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    It is unimpressive for the immediate metro area, obviously it depends where you live in the subforum.
  2. HVSnowLover
    I think sleet and freezing rain are possible for parts of the area especially NW of the city but I'm still having a hard time seeing a snow event from this, at least not until any models other than the GFS show this.
  3. HVSnowLover
    I'm not even going to let the 18Z GFS reel me in to think next weeks storm could be remotely interesting in our area although it does have some support from the CMC in terms of the WAA precip possibly being wintry
  4. HVSnowLover
    Yea because of the temps issue I get where you are coming from although I think if it's west enough to snow in the Hudson Valley it will be strong enough to bring the snow line down to I95. We are far away from that solution right now.
  5. HVSnowLover
    Not so much cold but definitely snowy, the coast had a great run in terms of intense snowstorms.
  6. HVSnowLover
    Agree a weak low at or east of the benchmark is rain/snow showers. This needs to be sub 990 and tracking inside the BM for the majority of the subforum to have a chance. Until I see that this is a non event.
  7. HVSnowLover
    We know storms tend to trend west so the models are really not in an awful spot for 4 days out, I just don't know if a scraper will do it temp wise for the area. We probably need a bomb closer to the coast in this type of scenario which is looking more and more unlikely but still not impossible.
  8. HVSnowLover
    A bit more west and bombing out earlier would be ideal but yea too much more west and we are going to get the boats ready and the way this winter is going that wouldn't shock me.
  9. HVSnowLover
    GFS verbatim is warm for the coast but with a low in that spot at that strength I think this would be mostly snow for everyone. This could be big if it bombs out a bit earlier
  10. HVSnowLover
    GFS way NW
  11. HVSnowLover
    Just looking at the temp profiles I'd say from I287 north this is a real threat that's where surface is 35 or below and 925 temps are below freezing most of the storm. Of course it could still change but the low would have to track further east and be stronger for NYC to have any chance
  12. HVSnowLover
    925 temps warm at the coast not to mention surface is upper 30s in the city and 40s on LI during heaviest precip
  13. HVSnowLover
    GFS a bit hit for the interior parts of the subforum again
  14. HVSnowLover
    On the GFS almost the entire state of New York has over 24 inches of snow in the next 3 weeks while NYC gets 1 inch.
  15. HVSnowLover
    Still not crazy off from something for interior parts of the subforum but definitely has an elevation dependent look to it.
  16. HVSnowLover
    It was too wet that's true but it did better with temps. (I'm talking in terms of what it was predicting this far out)
  17. HVSnowLover
    That's not actually that awful considering the time of year.
  18. HVSnowLover
    Not a great sign of the GFS is the only model showing the colder solution. However the GFS did the best overall with the most recent storm, the other models had the primary too strong and only had brief snow to rain a week out.
  19. HVSnowLover
    Hope it verifies, would be nice to at least see parts of the northeast get a winter
  20. HVSnowLover
    Which is why the lower elevations of the HV and areas near Boston are getting clobbered on the GFS runs? This is not an interior elevation event only, it is dependent on the track and strength of the low
  21. HVSnowLover
    In fairness it's easier to get snow in the interior without an ideal airmass than it is at the coast, I agree though if this shifts east it will snow to the coast.
  22. HVSnowLover
    Not true if the low is further east and bombs out it will snow to the coast, The 6Z GFS was very close to snow for the city.
  23. HVSnowLover
    6 Days out, I wouldn't lock this in yet.
  24. HVSnowLover
    Actually not a perfect track, a bit close to the coast, the airmass is very marginal though which means the perfect track and strength is needed more than it usually would be in January.
  25. HVSnowLover
    This is definitely a real threat for the interior parts of our subforum. For the coast well it's the coast, we need a miracle as always.
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