HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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Not sure what the panic is about? 0Z Euro looked great. Can't worry about long range NAM at this point.
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Yea a 10-12 hour storm it's had to see producing these kinds of totals honestly but the rates on the CMC were extreme in these areas.
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The CMC is a HECS for NNJ and the LHV. RGEM is a HECS for NYC Metro Getting even more wild.
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Thats CMC factoring in ratios?
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It's had 4 straight outlier runs ironically after it had the most tucked in NW run of any model yesterday at 18Z. I have no idea what to make of the gfs.
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Wow at the rates on the CMC
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GFS is not even warning level snow at HPN. That's not going to happen in this kind of setup.
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GFS still not budging, this run might even be more surpressed.
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RGEM has no interest in tomorrow but not sure how well it's been performing even in the short range.
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Run is over. It's fine for the coast although crushes interior more.
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Huge Hit
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NAM looks like it will come in warm but we'll see. Either way it's long range NAM so lets not panic. Nevermind everything crashed going to be a strong run
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NAM has rain/snow line right at the border of the city and then crashes into the city at the very end tomorrow
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Agree I think it's more possible with recent trends. Still be surprised if anyone without elevation sees more than 1-2 inches tomorrow but whitening the ground in preparation for Wednesday would be nice.
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Looking at the frames just posted I think NYC/NE NJ would be at or close to 2" qpf on that run.
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Does that shift east in future frames?
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Some storms don't have as sharp of a cutoff, the confluence for this one is going to drive a lot of dry air into the northern fringe. Fortunately for this area the confluence is the best friend or this storm would probably hug the coast.
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It may not be wrong but right now no other model is that far south with the cutoff of precip.
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GFS still on it's own as the outlier with the suppressed storm, still hits the city on south good.
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Guess Euro will end all this is turning into a rainstorm posts.
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Agree if anything the catskills will get the banding and they will get 2 plus feet. Albany will not get 2 feet from this storm and NYC will get at least 6 inches, I am pretty confident on both those statements.
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We go through this with every storm, models will flip around.
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its not becoming a rain event, at worst its snow to mix to snow for the city
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Maybe for your area but CMC/Euro are not nearly as warm as this ukie run, based on snow maps looks like rain/snow line would make it to Brooklyn and Queens.