HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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That’s a tight gradient both north and south of the city.
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Wow so a cave maybe, are 6z and 18z euro as reliable as 0z and 12z? Didn’t even know euro ran four times now.
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Yea I don’t see that happening either unless the models change. Right now the banding seems like it will be over NYC and the northern suburbs
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He said except for far eastern LI, south fork is as warm on LI as you’ll get in this type of setup
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I’d be surprised if it’s pouring all over southern NJ and good precip barely makes it to Orange County or southern CT but I guess anything is possible.
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Low is further NW but precip is still lousy on the NW side. Probably gfs error with precip.
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Euro came south all that really matters IMO. The rest is noise until NAM is in its real range
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Too far NW it will adjust I think but still a great storm for subforum even as is verbatim
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Nam is funky with upper levels for some reason. Philadelphia will get way more than that. Also Poughkeepsie is not getting 26 inches.
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Agree you need stronger dynamics on north shore of LI to flip to snow than White Plains even though parts of the North Shore are close to same latitude. But White Plains is more like 30 miles inland not 10-15
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Yea this is why I'd be a little worried north of I84. This run is still okay but models seeming to pick up on the impact of confluence on the northern extent of precip
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Ratios lower on the coast on ukie due to surface temps and possibly lack of banding. I still say gfs/ukie are both playing catch-up in opposite directions.
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Moves more and more SE with the snow each run
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Yes I95 to I84 basically locked in for a significant snowfall. South and north of there a little iffy but rather be near the mixing line then on northern fringe in a confluence setup.
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Yea I lived in New Paltz i think being on east side of Hudson River in these setups is an advantage so places like Poughkeepsie may still do well. It’s the opposite when cold air is marginal then west of the Hudson can do a lot better.
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Agree. My guess is sharp cutoff somewhere between I84 and Kingston. Lived in Mid HV for two winters and these storms are often not your friend but sometimes can get lucky.
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Maybe it’s sleet I don’t know I’ll take my chances with a big storm like this. Rather risk mixing then fringing in this kind of setup
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Looks similar to RGEM not shocked may be getting closer to nailing down the axis of heaviest snow. 12Z Euro a big run.
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Definitely came noticeably north at least with the precip
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Gfs trended a bit certainly didn’t cave but it’ll get there. I think the RGEN axis of heaviest snow is going to end up pretty accurate.
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All rain so far. Think this one was a bit of a bust on models. Would be surprised at this point if its not mainly rain for anyone south of I287.
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Yea admittedly on LI I might be a little nervous (especially south shore). City on NW I've seen no reason to get nervous yet...
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January 2010 was a memorable time this happened (I think I have the year right, i know it was a storm that went snow to sleet/rain and then dumped like 15 inches of snow in 4 hours at night). I believe Nemo also went like this with snow to mix to snow. Agree it's sort of rare but does happen.
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Yes. I look at every model but pretty much only care what Euro shows and then what NAM shows under 48 hours. The rest is just noise to either support or detract. But with this particular storm the model agreement has actually been better than usual.
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Agree totally, also can't look at every single model run of every model or will drive yourself crazy, well I do that but I also know how to take them with a grain of salt even though I look at them.
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