HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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Hopefully it trends back a touch SE tomorrow, if not congrats interior but still 6-10 inches for the city. Would be similar to November 2018 with snow coming in like a wall.
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Basically All models have that nasty dry slot now over NYC on the plus side it doesnt change to rain at least.
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Euro is NW, GFS on its own planet now.
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I’ll stick with my plan of riding the Euro for now and then focusing on NAM tomorrow. Don’t feel like dealing with the other models.
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No it’s not.
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The low tracks west of ACY it’s honestly a miracle NYC stays snow with that track
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CMC is warm, LI flips to rain and HV clobbered. No model convergence tonight.
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It’s a nowcast event everywhere given how tight the gradient between the mix line and the sharp northern cutoff is. I’d agree at this point with 5-20 inches area wide as a forecast
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0Z Euro is big, it’s been trending south and if trends more gfs may be onto something
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Gfs not budging
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Keeps trending NW with the best totals but RGEM can be over amped at this range
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The confluence is very strong, rarely do storms track due east which would explain how central PA and LI could both do well. I’m skeptical of heavy snow making into south central NY.
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I don’t see why the band In pa would dry up so much with a coastal
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Most models other than gfs show the best banding nw of the city. Might make sense the best banding will be a little south of the sharp cutoff.
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Is it done at 60? Qpf seems low for metro area.
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Nam sometimes is good at picking mid level warmth but it’s still a little out of range for our area. Either way 10 inches isn’t tragic.
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It has a random blob of sleet over the city surrounded by snow which I doubt would actually verify but possibly UHI?
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I'd be a little worried in Philly that the NAM is still showing that warm tongue at hour 48, I still think our area will be okay but sneaky warm layer could produce sleet for some.
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Wow that does look eerily similar in terms of jackpot zone although a way colder storm
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Seems like heavy snow is about 10 hours
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As amazing as this map looks it’s sort of hard to buy these totals given short duration of storm although I guess crazy intense rates at night helps.
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Yea I think westchester county in general in an amazing spot with this storm