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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    Absolutely blitzes the city but with the rain line that close it’s a fine line
  2. HVSnowLover
    Surface temps definitely may go above freezing especially SE of the city. Fortunately the high shouldn’t allow too much warming at the surface.
  3. HVSnowLover
    Surface temps will rise above freezing righ surface I would think rises above freezing along immediate coast once precip lightens so rain might make more sense. If the upper layers warm further inland then sleet seems more likely (by inland I’m even talking like anywhere not on the Jersey coast or south shore of LI)
  4. HVSnowLover
    Gfs looks nice but with the low in that position I think most of the immediate area at least flips to sleet or rain for a brief time. Models look better than they did this morning though at least.
  5. HVSnowLover
    Some of that is sleet, beware of sleet. But yes it’s going to be a nice winter storm.
  6. HVSnowLover
    Wow what a change a day makes you are now rooting for an east shift lol
  7. HVSnowLover
    I think honestly north Bronx could get 12 and JFK 5 in this setup. Really depends how far the dry slot and sleet line get.
  8. HVSnowLover
    Models similar to start but Euro takes the low more due east of NJ coast where as other models take it more ENE. This will be a big thing to monitor. It’s hard for the city/LI to stay snow on the Euro track but not that hard for northern suburbs to stay all snow.
  9. HVSnowLover
    I think its a red flag other models might have overdone nw trend a bit since Euro held steady at 12z.
  10. HVSnowLover
    Agree it hasn’t shifted dramatically the main shift has been upper level low which is shifting the best banding further north and introducing sleet. Central Park and points nw I still think stays all frozen.
  11. HVSnowLover
    Not awful nyc might cash in a bit on both front and back end.
  12. HVSnowLover
    Oh no! Sorry that’s my weenie moment.
  13. HVSnowLover
    Agree perspective. NAM can overamp. Trend has been NW for sure but if it’s close to 0Z Euro most on here still in decent shape.
  14. HVSnowLover
    Trying to have a glass half full perspective that at least no model is showing heavy rain. Snow to sleet to dry slot isn’t terrible but I know it’s so deflating when everyone has been expecting a blizzard.
  15. HVSnowLover
    I have lived almost my whole life on the coast despite my name. You’re right north shore of LI has done really well in some events but I still stand by what I said.
  16. HVSnowLover
    Not really. Every other model run still showed 6+ for the city.
  17. HVSnowLover
    It’d be hard not to get at least 3-6 unless the front end dump somehow doesn’t materialize but with waa ramming into a cold airmass I can almost guarantee at minimum a front end dump.
  18. HVSnowLover
    Yea it’s brutal to live at the coast. Great stretch 2010-2014 but other than that yuck.
  19. HVSnowLover
    Gfs is clueless. Nam might be too overdoing it but the trend is real.
  20. HVSnowLover
    Its honestly amazing given recent trends that the 32 degree line is still basically over the city. That shows the power of this high.
  21. HVSnowLover
    Yesterday worried about confluence and northern fringe areas of the subforum and NAM now has precip up the Canadian border. What a trend...
  22. HVSnowLover
    If NAM under 48 hours is showing big totals still up to the Southern Adirondacks it's over for the coast in terms of an all snow event. About to concede, I was wrong on this one. Looking like an I84-I90 jackpot. Still think the city especially Northern parts and the immediate suburbs do fairly well.
  23. HVSnowLover
    The issue is more about dry slotting and possible mid level warming depending on the track of the 700 low more so than surface temps. Either way I agree the freaking out right now is overboard. When it’s pouring snow tomorrow night after last winter it’s going to feel nice.
  24. HVSnowLover
    Models still showing over a foot equivalent of snow falling for the city however snow depth maps lower. Mixing and dry slotting don’t help in terms of that but if temps stay below freezing at surface it would help prevent too much melting, maybe it ticks back south maybe not either way it’ll still be more snow than all of last winter.
  25. HVSnowLover
    It’s supposed to start in like 36 hours so I doubt they’ll be much more trending Agree, despite the panicking no models have the rain line into the city. 6-12 inches and then dry slot isn’t awful.
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