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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    Admit it’s trending colder still think its a minor event but interesting rgem/nam both now haven the rain/snow line right near or over the city
  2. HVSnowLover
    Sleeting in southeast Yonkers
  3. HVSnowLover
    In this storm the first map won’t verify. The airmass is lousy unfortunately.
  4. HVSnowLover
    Don’t think rain mixes in in Sullivan based on latest guidance
  5. HVSnowLover
    It will be rain but think sundown and evaporation cooling may knock temps down another degree or two
  6. HVSnowLover
    Yea maybe a slushy inch for Rockland and Northern Westchester but in terms of any real snow north of I84
  7. HVSnowLover
    It is but for the coast id rather take my chances on a pattern that favors DC than one that favors the Adirondacks.
  8. HVSnowLover
    Agree totally. It’s also not going to be all snow I don’t think anywhere south of Ulster so bouncing around precip types will also affect accumulations.
  9. HVSnowLover
    Good place for the storm to be at hour 186
  10. HVSnowLover
    Came south it looks like. Trend toward other models.
  11. HVSnowLover
    Think we have to careful with ratios since it won’t be 10:1 in this setup with lousy surface temps but it is nice to see the snow line at least come down to the city.
  12. HVSnowLover
    So is every model more flat than cmc/rgem?
  13. HVSnowLover
    We’ll see. I still think this is an elevation storm that is 1-3 at best in lower elevations even inland.
  14. HVSnowLover
    Unfortunately given how every storm basically has trended since the start of last winter I’d buy the more nw outcomes
  15. HVSnowLover
    Euro is pretty awful with snow totals for the sub forum on Sunday and may be right but it does seem to bring a bit of snow down to the city.
  16. HVSnowLover
    Agree totally with your point. But also it’s a world of difference nyc/LI vs Hudson valley and points NW. Hudson valley can get dink and dunk storms in more so so patterns where as NYC/LI needs the right pattern and usually feasts on bigger coastal storms Just look at the next two events for example nyc will likely be 100 percent rain while parts of the sub forum will end up mainly frozen for both events
  17. HVSnowLover
    Unfortunately yea and bouncing between 33-35 and snow from Orange County north but I don’t know how well it accumulates in lower elevations.
  18. HVSnowLover
    That model is drier than others though, CMC may be overdoing both events though
  19. HVSnowLover
    Yea that’s why I’m thinking mostly white rain for your area but it could surprise if precip is very intense
  20. HVSnowLover
    Yea if you combined surface temps for this with upper air temps on Sunday it’d be a real nice storm for the interior lol
  21. HVSnowLover
    Looks like mild icing event for I84 corridor and points north. We know the models can overestimate how fast CAD will scoot out even in the valleys in these scenarios. As others have said not much previously and also temps being near 32 helps a lot compared to when it’s in the 20s in terms of avoiding significant icing.
  22. HVSnowLover
    Agree still time for changes but right now I’d say rain for nyc metro and immediate suburbs and white rain for interior lower elevations with accumulating snow in the higher elevations. If it bombed out a bit earlier or further south it could be a different scenario but unlikely.
  23. HVSnowLover
    Starting to get real interesting for the northern parts of the sub forum
  24. HVSnowLover
    Agree it was fine with surface temps for that storm.
  25. HVSnowLover
    Looks like a similar track to the Dec 17 event but much less cold air in place.
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