HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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The NAM sniffed out the mid level warning and sleet the best with the December storm
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Models often overdo it a bit outside of banding zones so the conservative forecast for nyc right now is 8-12 but yes it could be more
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- heavy snow
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I’d go a little lower in Middletown but agree with the rest good forecast
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Yes LI is long as someone mentioned earlier today. Montaulk is way further from Manhattan than Poughkeepsie is so lumping nyc/LI together in this set up may not happen. Honestly nyc best chance of heaviest snowfall is probably a little mixing on eastern LI as the best snows are usually near the mix line
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Yea I can already predict all the this is a bust posts when the snow is barely crawling and running into a dry wall tomorrow afternoon and evening but this is expected to happen
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Fair enough but there’s not too much that can truly go wrong with this. And outside of that wobble SE the models took on Thursday this has been modeled well for a week plus out
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I see no reason why there won’t be widespread 1 foot totals. 18+ will be more isolated
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Need NAM track for that otherwise it’s huge thump and they dryslot/mix
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This will be congrats PA/NJ or congrats NYC/LI depending on track but either way everyone is getting a good storm
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Upper 30s eastern LI. NYC maxes at 35
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You can add gfs to that list. Doesn’t mean they can’t tick back east a bit but right now NAM is on its own with the evolution of the storm
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Ignore gfs qpf because it’s garbage but the look of the storm is much more in line with the global than the NAM
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Honestly kind of likely. I’d trust Ukmet/ecm/cmc combo at this range the most
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It’s a sign the run is probably wrong when it’s producing such unrealistic totals in one location
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It looks like it came pretty far south from 6z and 12z runs to me?
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I think the reason western areas get more shafted on NAM is the low tracks further east (also why LI stays all snow). So continue to monitor the track.
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Sort of but it all comes down to banding so it can be sometimes hard to differentiate who gets 10 and who gets 25. I don’t believe anyone is quite getting 30.
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Yep this is a tri state area special this run but doesn’t mean it’s the final outcome
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Will be higher than 10:1 ratios I think of nam temps verified
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You honestly could not ask for a better run for NYC/LI.
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NAM is epic and what will happen if the low stays far enough south to avoid the dry slot
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Gonna be some high ratio snow in that mega band
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Doesn’t make it to this latitude for a while
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NAM still handling overrunning tomorrow night different from other models. Southern parts of nyc are at .60 qpf by 12z Monday
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Yes to specify its not a rain threat for nyc metro yet. Assuming no further trending.