
HVSnowLover
Members-
Posts
2,952 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by HVSnowLover
-
The NAM sniffed out the mid level warning and sleet the best with the December storm
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Models often overdo it a bit outside of banding zones so the conservative forecast for nyc right now is 8-12 but yes it could be more
- 2,426 replies
-
- 1
-
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
I’d go a little lower in Middletown but agree with the rest good forecast
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Yes LI is long as someone mentioned earlier today. Montaulk is way further from Manhattan than Poughkeepsie is so lumping nyc/LI together in this set up may not happen. Honestly nyc best chance of heaviest snowfall is probably a little mixing on eastern LI as the best snows are usually near the mix line
- 2,426 replies
-
- 1
-
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Yea I can already predict all the this is a bust posts when the snow is barely crawling and running into a dry wall tomorrow afternoon and evening but this is expected to happen
- 2,426 replies
-
- 1
-
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Fair enough but there’s not too much that can truly go wrong with this. And outside of that wobble SE the models took on Thursday this has been modeled well for a week plus out
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
I see no reason why there won’t be widespread 1 foot totals. 18+ will be more isolated
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Need NAM track for that otherwise it’s huge thump and they dryslot/mix
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
This will be congrats PA/NJ or congrats NYC/LI depending on track but either way everyone is getting a good storm
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Upper 30s eastern LI. NYC maxes at 35
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
You can add gfs to that list. Doesn’t mean they can’t tick back east a bit but right now NAM is on its own with the evolution of the storm
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Ignore gfs qpf because it’s garbage but the look of the storm is much more in line with the global than the NAM
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Honestly kind of likely. I’d trust Ukmet/ecm/cmc combo at this range the most
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
It’s a sign the run is probably wrong when it’s producing such unrealistic totals in one location
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
It looks like it came pretty far south from 6z and 12z runs to me?
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
I think the reason western areas get more shafted on NAM is the low tracks further east (also why LI stays all snow). So continue to monitor the track.
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Sort of but it all comes down to banding so it can be sometimes hard to differentiate who gets 10 and who gets 25. I don’t believe anyone is quite getting 30.
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Yep this is a tri state area special this run but doesn’t mean it’s the final outcome
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Will be higher than 10:1 ratios I think of nam temps verified
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
You honestly could not ask for a better run for NYC/LI.
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
NAM is epic and what will happen if the low stays far enough south to avoid the dry slot
- 2,426 replies
-
- 1
-
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Gonna be some high ratio snow in that mega band
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Doesn’t make it to this latitude for a while
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
NAM still handling overrunning tomorrow night different from other models. Southern parts of nyc are at .60 qpf by 12z Monday
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Yes to specify its not a rain threat for nyc metro yet. Assuming no further trending.
- 2,426 replies
-
- heavy snow
- ice pellets
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with: