HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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But of a model battle going on, NAM colder than other models and dry slot takes longer to reach the city
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Had a burst that whitened ground and now back to very light snow
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That’s like 2 pm tomorrow which seems to early
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By hour 18? I think hrrr only goes out 18 hours
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Agree most forecasts didn’t really have accumulating snow in the city until after midnight so we may be ahead of schedule
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Moderate snow
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Nothing yet here
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Evetything going as modeled so far. Still think the jackpot is north central nj. Air is cold and dry but east wind will get really cranking once the coastal takes over
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That’s nyc metro jackpot haven’t had this type of storm since 2016 but when you really think about it’s not that long ago for a HECS
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It started to trend this way Friday nights runs and a some people said qpf would increase closer to event with such a strong east wind
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If we get away with no cutter and this snow not melting in a week like the last storm it’s a win, if we get that it’s a wow
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- heavy snow
- ice pellets
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Euro looks similar to past runs. Maybe a touch colder but still has NYC up to 36 so imagine LI would be even warmer. Not complaining at all just stating facts that the model still shows warmth
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Yea looks like the band now that jumped north into PA and NJ is not part of the main storm if I’m seeing it accurately
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Is it though? Looking at webcams on Jersey coast not much is happening
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- heavy snow
- wind damage
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Colder now has nothing to do with the warmth that will come in once coastal cranks but precipitation coming in early and more overrunning means higher totals before any changeover
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Very cold start rare to have temps in the low 20s pre evaporational cooling as precipitation arrives for a big storm like this
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I’m still not expecting much if anything today still think a lot of virga nyc north
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I wonder if it’s because length of dryslot is decreasing and more wrap around precip?
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Pretty good agreement now between gfs and rgem on jackpot zone
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I agree that’s the most likely outcome although probably drizzle not freezing drizzle as surface will be above freezing
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This is almost November 2018 on steroids version
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Rgem would actually flip nyc and especially LI to legit rain but I think it’s overamped
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Rgem I think is overdone and overamped. Last night had 50 inches in Allentown. I’d go with a blend of NAM/Euro at this point
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Rgem must have insane qpf to show those totals with the mix line making it to Rockland county
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Yes expected. Enjoy the day and don’t watch the radar too closely. Wouldn’t expect anything interesting at our latitude until tonight at the earliest.