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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. Looks like the models are really backing off the cold and therefore the metro area is going to get more plain rain and the more expected climo spots will be at risk of significant icing. (could still change)
  2. I find that icing is never that bad near or in the city but that's also because temps are usually not that low.
  3. I can't say that this far out and certainly nothing is a lock at this point but with the trough axis that far west and very cold air in place its screaming ice storm setups for the metro area. Hopefully we get more sleet than ZR. I think you said you are 65 miles NW of the city so you would be in better position to see snow.
  4. No but between the three storms this week we may be headed for a lot of sleet/zr
  5. Yea I have it in my head that a lot of ice is coming, more then we may know what to do with as I am not used to significant icing events.
  6. CMC is way more amped than GFS with this event.
  7. Not good trends tonight on CMC/GFS for a snowstorm in our region.
  8. Too far out to know but Euro is not as torched for next Thu-Fri as the gfs is. Even with a low going through upstate NY its snow/ice to light rain.
  9. You guys should do better up there but for the city I think the real storm is Tuesday's storm. I don't like either of the other storms for the city in terms of snow potential.
  10. I think Euro is not done trending south for Tuesday its quite unusual for surface to be that cold in this area and 850s to be warm, also other models are further SE
  11. LOL NYC starting at 17 degrees on the Euro and max is mid 20s but yes upper levels are iffy so ice.
  12. The airmass is very cold so yes I could buy surface temps in the teens or low 20s. It also depends on the track.
  13. Since this thread is covering multiple storms Sunday is looking more and more like a light to moderate ice event Tuesday looks like a mostly snow (possibly significant event) Not going to bother with trying to analyze the late week storm yet
  14. Agree with focusing on one at a time as the outcome of each system often affects the next system
  15. 18z rgem came south (think an inch or less now for most of the city)
  16. Virginia Beach got snow once this month so there are occasional storms that don't trend north.
  17. Yea that's unfortunate but they may cash in on the next wave which looks pretty surpressed to the south
  18. I find the SREF is usually too far NW
  19. We are in a cold pattern hence the ice threats for next week even with storms not taking ideal tracks.
  20. Agree ratios wont be great unless there are heavy bursts. I think 1-3 is a good call for the city and probably up to I287, closer to 3 more likely right along the coast of the city and the south shore of LI.
  21. 12Z Euro would be two moderate ice events in NYC in one week which almost never happens (the big storm is snow to ice to rain for the coast and significant ice just inland
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