HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Unfortunately we know the mid levels love to torch fast so might be mainly a sleetfest before the eventual change to rain. -
No, precip type looks pretty much the same from start to finish so for those who end up with ZR ouch.
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Interesting how far south the 40-50% of .25 ice is, guess not that convinced it will be plain rain.
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Yes if GFS is right with the track its 50s but right now would lean Euro/CMC which would be more like wintry mix to 40 degree rain.
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Maybe but it's front end snow that will be washed away if that low cuts to the west.
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Euro is a bit south and colder Tue and more amped and warmer for the late week storm, there seems to be some correlation, we probably actually want Tuesday as amped as possible.
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Everything came a bit south, still mainly ice for your area but the snow line is closer to you
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Even Central Park has a dewpoint of 30 at the height of the storm which would be a red flag for ice potential on the Euro
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12Z Euro is colder for this storm, the ice line is now down to the Bronx/Westchester border it looks like
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I doubt Ukie is all sleet, pretty sure the late week storm at least starts as snow on the run verbatim. We need that high to stay locked in and not have the setup change on us like Tuesday.
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Euro has been consistently way further east of the GFS for the late week storm. I could be way off but I really don't believe if the Tuesday storm amps the way the models are now showing this is happening on Friday.
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I think the storm on Monday is ruining the storm on Tuesday (or saving) depending on your perspective. Without that wave to warm things up we would have had a sleet/zr event to the coast. Now I think its plain rain southeast of I287 although still tricky forecast just NW of the city.
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Sneaky little event tonight into early Sunday. Any ticks north which hasn't been that uncommon this winter and it could be a surprise 1-3 inches.
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Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yea this storm may be more favorable for snow/ice than the early week storm as the separation and the highs may allow for some nice cooling and CAD -
Agree but I'll also admit I've never really seen a damaging ice storm, in nyc it's usually a glaze on trees and colder surfaces.
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Such a fine line, too cold and every storm is squashed but some warmth and its so easy to warm our area , its a pretty lousy winter climo although the atlantic does provide some big storms
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I initially did. Now I am not sure, this is going to be either a real exciting weather week or a brutal weather week or maybe somewhere in between.
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Maybe not quite nowcasting but agree this much energy is impossible for the models to handle accurately more than 24 hours out. The CMC/GFS look very different within the next 96 hours alone in how they handle different energies.
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Yea where you are you may get an ice bomb on Tuesday and a blue bomb at the end of the week.
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Agree at this point we probably want the 16th as amped as possible and take the rain instead of the ZR and hope it leads to a further south solution on the 18th
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Euro has a few inches of snow for northern parts of the city on Sunday
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The initial wave out ahead of the storm I think is pushing WAA in which is why its warmer then yesterday.
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Each storm affects the next one so its so hard to forecast 3 storms out
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Still a tricky forecast especially just NW of the city where Euro is 33-34 during the storm, if its off by a few degrees it would change things a lot.
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Storm on 2/16 looking less promising and one on 2/18 starting to look maybe a bit more promising
