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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    NAM came south, big front end dump (still north of other models as it focuses overunning snow on us instead of DC/SNJ)
  2. HVSnowLover
    Yep that's why I don't know why people freak about ice (SE of I287). It almost never happens.
  3. HVSnowLover
    Your area always seems to get a lot of ice, i guess somewhat elevated in Putnam county?
  4. HVSnowLover
    If it's not going to snow may as well be mild out. This seems to be the last threat for a while but definitely the Thursday storm is the main show.
  5. HVSnowLover
    It's 32 here but everything is wet, even at 32 rain is just basically rain.
  6. HVSnowLover
    Looking at current temps I actually think this will be a bit colder than modeled during the storm and the warm air will really come in after the storm is over.
  7. HVSnowLover
    I feel like we need it either to trend even further south where the main storm is snow instead of sleet or primary trends back north where we get the best WAA snows rather than DC (In that scenario we also flip to rain) so scenario 1 would be best.
  8. HVSnowLover
    It's actually a bit colder than I expected but my expectations for this event were very low. Admittedly it's a tricky call well NW of the city.
  9. HVSnowLover
    I think northern suburbs start sleet/ice but yea 30-32 and ice changing to rain, not a big event for anyone in our subforum.
  10. HVSnowLover
    I agree. I do not expect a significant icing event in our subforum at this point. This setup trended away from that.
  11. HVSnowLover
    Right but we know models can underestimate low level cold air so while it may go quickly to rain I also wouldn't rule out a prolonged period of icing in a place iike Mahwah.
  12. HVSnowLover
    It's already above freezing in NYC/LI. May be some cooling at the onset of precip tonight but I really don't see frozen precip for NYC with this at all.
  13. HVSnowLover
    Agree cautiously optimistic but definitely not locking anything in at this point, we've been burned by late trends too many times and probably won't really know the outcome until tomorrows system passes.
  14. HVSnowLover
    Yea it's basically an all ice event now (little to no snow) even near Albany. I am pretty confident now this is a mainly plain rain event for NYC and all the immediate suburbs. I think it's a very tricky forecast for our further Northern and Western suburbs (mostly 33 degree rain vs mostly ice)
  15. HVSnowLover
    Maybe Im being a weenie about this but I really am higher on this potential then a lot of people seem to be. I really don't see this as a front end thump to a rainstorm but more so mainly snow to sleet ending as drizzle. Euro has been very consistent with the further SE track.
  16. HVSnowLover
    Way better antecedent airmass but yes i am still concerned the models are not accurate with the track.
  17. HVSnowLover
    In practice I find with these storms the temp usually sits in the mid 30s and then spikes to low 40s for like one hour. Hopefully doesn't totally destroy the entire snowpack although it will definitely take a big hit
  18. HVSnowLover
    I think some sleet but mostly ZR there, may flip to plain rain east of the Hudson but probably not for that long.
  19. HVSnowLover
    18Z GFSv16 is about 4-6 inches for the metro area. Barring something messing up this setup (which I can't discount 4 days out) it looks good for at least a front end thump
  20. HVSnowLover
    While I agree they are, in this particular case I am not super expecting significant icing south of Orange County but could be wrong.
  21. HVSnowLover
    Agree this is not an ice setup at this point, maybe tomorrow morning some light spotty ZR but that wave that comes in tomorrow will warm us up, once that wave became more apparent and stronger the ice chances for the metro were done (which I know most on here prefer). It's going to be two dreary days of 33-36 degree rain I287 southeast. North of there it's a different world.
  22. HVSnowLover
    I think we'd all be fairly satisfied with this outcome. Nice front end thump and no 50 degree rain.
  23. HVSnowLover
    At this point Albany is on the fringe of plowable snow vs ice/rain. This storm is long done in terms of snow for almost all of this subforum.
  24. HVSnowLover
    Im still skeptical that it will be plain rain in the interior, the gfs is not going to be good with thermals. Either way love that this is so amped, I think it's really helping with Thursday
  25. HVSnowLover
    This is becoming less of a front end thump to windswept rain (cutter) and more of a front end thump to light mix scenario, hopefully the models will continue to force the transfer quicker and further south.
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