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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    RGEM also came in colder, looks like a nice burst of snow even into the city at the start is looking more possible.
  2. HVSnowLover
    I mean just NW of the city. Northern NJ west of I287 up into the Hudson Valley Highlands may get more than that. I recognize NAM looks pretty cold, we'll see.
  3. HVSnowLover
    NAM ticked a little further east and colder but drier. Looks like just NW of the city might get 1-2 inches.
  4. HVSnowLover
    Around 1 pm. Not ideal but if it comes in like a wall we'll see.
  5. HVSnowLover
    Friday was light snow all day though, if its heavy and it looks like this comes in heavy I'm not sure temps will matter as much (at least up to a point, yea above 35 it's going to have a hard time accumulating)
  6. HVSnowLover
    Yea agree somewhat although I'm not sure how big of an impact daylight has on temps yet although it's definitely starting to. I guess if this is true we can hope it comes in an hour or two early which sometimes happens.
  7. HVSnowLover
    Definitely came a bit SE now has me starting as snow but not expecting any accumulation here.
  8. HVSnowLover
    Agree think its a WWA advisory type event for Northern NJ west of 287 and west of the hudson river in SE NY.
  9. HVSnowLover
    Looks like the best snows would favor Eastern PA to Northern NJ with lighter snows for the HV and mix changing to rain along the coast. Northern NJ seems to be the jackpot of the NYC area this winter.
  10. HVSnowLover
    Looks like most models now have a pretty nice burst of snow Monday even down to parts of the city but surface temps in the mid to upper 30s so I am skeptical.
  11. HVSnowLover
    27 with ZR, I didn't even realize it was doing anything out, guess we got our icing event this week afterall.
  12. HVSnowLover
    It's going to snow again on Monday especially north of the city lol but probably little to no accumulation
  13. HVSnowLover
    Everything this winter has been Miller B's which explains why we are doing better than Philly and way better than DC. Agree for an I95 snowstorm you need a strong Miller A coming out of the gulf with lots of cold air in place.
  14. HVSnowLover
    This year we've had some nice events where we pinged but after huge front end thumps and you guys also got clobbered.
  15. HVSnowLover
    It depends what happens with the overrunning. I think the coastal would be too far east to have major impact in the HV even if it happens. Unfortunately usually the coast has to at least ping for you guys to get the really good snows.
  16. HVSnowLover
    7-11 might be pushing it but I think our whole subforum should get at least 6
  17. HVSnowLover
    Poor DC. I think NAM will be closer to actual outcome
  18. HVSnowLover
    Yea I remember all the freaking out before the Sunday storm a few weeks ago with the models and their qpf and the immediate metro area all got the totals upton predicted if not more. Its hard to think a potentially long duration event with cold air in place won't get us to 6-9 inches one way or another. It's also hard to believe an overrunning setup like this won't get decent snow at least up to NYC.
  19. HVSnowLover
    Model disagreement is nothing new, it's been better this winter for the most part this close to an event. The differences between the GFS and NAM for both tomorrow and Friday are laughable right now.
  20. HVSnowLover
    CMC is now a miss with the coastal. I would lean NAM has the best handle right now but not super high confidence.
  21. HVSnowLover
    Yes this is becoming a nowcasting event, NAM and GFS are showing entirely different setups (I would probably slightly lean NAM at this range although Euro looked more GFS like)
  22. HVSnowLover
    If the middle levels are warming faster it probably means the primary is further north which has been the trend on most storms this winter. Our ideal dream scenario is primary further South and coastal further NW closer to the coast but this is unlikely.
  23. HVSnowLover
    Unfortunately I would usually go with the NAM on mid level warming scenarios (but the 12K Nam looked okay, it's like its the 3K that is warming us fast)
  24. HVSnowLover
    Yea its tough because the stronger the WAA push the heavier snow we get tomorrow but also the faster change to sleet.
  25. HVSnowLover
    12Z RGEM also seems to agree more with NAM about overrunning being the main show but also has the sleet line reaching us pretty fast so agree this is a trend to monitor.
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