
HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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RGEM also came in colder, looks like a nice burst of snow even into the city at the start is looking more possible.
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I mean just NW of the city. Northern NJ west of I287 up into the Hudson Valley Highlands may get more than that. I recognize NAM looks pretty cold, we'll see.
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NAM ticked a little further east and colder but drier. Looks like just NW of the city might get 1-2 inches.
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Friday was light snow all day though, if its heavy and it looks like this comes in heavy I'm not sure temps will matter as much (at least up to a point, yea above 35 it's going to have a hard time accumulating)
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Yea agree somewhat although I'm not sure how big of an impact daylight has on temps yet although it's definitely starting to. I guess if this is true we can hope it comes in an hour or two early which sometimes happens.
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Definitely came a bit SE now has me starting as snow but not expecting any accumulation here.
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Agree think its a WWA advisory type event for Northern NJ west of 287 and west of the hudson river in SE NY.
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Looks like the best snows would favor Eastern PA to Northern NJ with lighter snows for the HV and mix changing to rain along the coast. Northern NJ seems to be the jackpot of the NYC area this winter.
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Looks like most models now have a pretty nice burst of snow Monday even down to parts of the city but surface temps in the mid to upper 30s so I am skeptical.
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OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
27 with ZR, I didn't even realize it was doing anything out, guess we got our icing event this week afterall. -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
It's going to snow again on Monday especially north of the city lol but probably little to no accumulation -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Everything this winter has been Miller B's which explains why we are doing better than Philly and way better than DC. Agree for an I95 snowstorm you need a strong Miller A coming out of the gulf with lots of cold air in place. -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
This year we've had some nice events where we pinged but after huge front end thumps and you guys also got clobbered. -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
It depends what happens with the overrunning. I think the coastal would be too far east to have major impact in the HV even if it happens. Unfortunately usually the coast has to at least ping for you guys to get the really good snows. -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
7-11 might be pushing it but I think our whole subforum should get at least 6 -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Poor DC. I think NAM will be closer to actual outcome -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yea I remember all the freaking out before the Sunday storm a few weeks ago with the models and their qpf and the immediate metro area all got the totals upton predicted if not more. Its hard to think a potentially long duration event with cold air in place won't get us to 6-9 inches one way or another. It's also hard to believe an overrunning setup like this won't get decent snow at least up to NYC. -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Model disagreement is nothing new, it's been better this winter for the most part this close to an event. The differences between the GFS and NAM for both tomorrow and Friday are laughable right now. -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
CMC is now a miss with the coastal. I would lean NAM has the best handle right now but not super high confidence. -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yes this is becoming a nowcasting event, NAM and GFS are showing entirely different setups (I would probably slightly lean NAM at this range although Euro looked more GFS like) -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
If the middle levels are warming faster it probably means the primary is further north which has been the trend on most storms this winter. Our ideal dream scenario is primary further South and coastal further NW closer to the coast but this is unlikely. -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Unfortunately I would usually go with the NAM on mid level warming scenarios (but the 12K Nam looked okay, it's like its the 3K that is warming us fast) -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yea its tough because the stronger the WAA push the heavier snow we get tomorrow but also the faster change to sleet. -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
HVSnowLover replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
12Z RGEM also seems to agree more with NAM about overrunning being the main show but also has the sleet line reaching us pretty fast so agree this is a trend to monitor.