HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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GFS East, CMC West, big picture not feeling good about this at all anywhere near the coast. Think too much onshore flow. NW of I287 still in the game but even they going to get more pinged than white unless things change.
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The strength and placement of high will be so key in terms of front end snow. Almost any storm with successful front end snow for the I95 area starts with a really strong well positioned high.
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Similar to the last storm I think this may come down to which low ends up dominant. Unfortunately usually the western low wins out but not always.
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I think people might be overrreacting to GFS. Euro coastal hugger solution may be more realistic until I see it trend to the gfs. I think the NW parts of the subforum still have a shot at a significant snowfall.
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More rain than expected. Basically knocking out the whole snowpack.
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Agree its not out of the norm but still .25 icing for the interior is never anything to ignore and even wouldnt be surprised if it is icy near I95 tomorrow morning.
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GFS/NAM now both with warning level snow into almost all of CT, wouldn't take much of a SW shift to get into even higher totals which I assume would happen if storm strengthened a bit faster.
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Probably around 1 am in our area (but yes tends to come in earlier than expected a lot of times).
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The fact that the good snows are now getting into LI and CT instead of confined to eastern Mass shows this is developing sooner. It wouldn't take much to get the banding into NYC and the immediate suburbs.
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This has always been more of a NYC and points SE special but looks significantly better NW of NYC than previous runs though.
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NAM 4-6 for the city, 6+ eastern LI and most of CT
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We about to be nam'ed
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I wonder if the snowcover will make the storm on Sunday more icy.
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A small tick west would be real nice for I95 and points just NW but at this point we'll take what we can get. Storm in a better spot than it was 24 hours ago.
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Euro still not as bullish as some of the short range models but at this point would rely on short range models more.
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Based on latest trends thinking 3-5 inches for most of the area with potentially a bit more in LI. It will be fast and intense in a way wish it was during daytime hours rather than overnight but will accumulate real well overnight.
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3k nam is nice.
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I agree the setup looks better and the low more west.
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Verbatim nam has less snow for nyc metro than last run although better look overall.
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From this point id look at the short range models. Globals wont pick up where banding sets up.
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NAM still struggling with this storm, lot of run to run variation.
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Agree I think 1-3 is a good call but I think 3-4 is actually more likely in this scenario than 1.
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Look at the dewpoints, its going to be well below freezing when its snowing.
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Why only grass and car tops. It will be falling at night with temps below freezing.
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Euro is about 2.5 inches for the area, more for LI.
