HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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The good news: Models bringing in precip slightly faster around 7/8 pm which means metro area may get an hour of frozen at the start Bad News: Upper levels torching so fast that now even I84 corridor is pingling before midnight tomorrow.
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Be surprised if its raining tomorrow night up there. I mean this storm is powerful but so is this airmass and I think once you get into Orange County that surface cold air will be hard to scour out.
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From this point forward Id mainly use the NAM and maybe RGEM for temps/precip types. The globals are not going to sniff out the details of mid level warming.
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There is no way anywhere south or east of 287 is getting 3-6 in this storm. Maybe 3-6 flakes?
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Hard to say for sure but just going by surface temps at precip onset the Euro/NAM would probably start I95 on NW as snow while GFS and CMC are all rain for I95. Meaningless distinction but only intrigue left in this storm.
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Gets uglier and uglier by the run. GFS is all rain for city and even up to I287. Maybe thats almost better than having a half inch of slop be washed away.
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The GFS is the furthest SE model right now but is still not showing significant snow near the coast.
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Better like this than to be let down with a last minute northwest trend. This is one of those where we know it's not our storm and at this point it's like hope for the best which would be front frozen precip hanging on a bit longer.
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Models have been pretty consistent with the all rain line either over the city or starting just south of the city. Either way I've seen this song and dance before it may show several hours of snow over places like the Bronx and Southern Westchester but it will actually be a quick change to sleet/rain
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I'd agree catskills but it depends on the best dynamics. Theres pribably going to be an area that has strong frontogentisis snow and then an area well NW that gets the bigtime snow and an area in between that sorta gets shafted.
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Its junk low ratio sloppy snow or sleet but either way the kuchera maps are way different than the 10:1 maps for NE NJ and Westchester which you'd expect in this scenario.
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The GFS is actually a pretty big improvement if you want a frozen event north of the city with the secondary now south of LI.
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GFS might be slighty better at least in terms of front end snow but have to see run play out.
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We got a storm like that last winter, there will be more opportunities.
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On a positive note at least the pattern is still fast flow and we are not missing out on an absolute monster, this is even 12-18 inches in the jackpot zone which isn't that high for a storm of this intensity.
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I mean anything can happen but we have to predict based off what seems most likely to happen. Each model run showing the same thing basically narrows down the cone of uncertainity. There is always going to be an outlier storm with a big surprise but usually a storm hammering Western NY within 96 hours is not trending to a storm for us. At this point I'd say it's like 75% a non event for NYC Metro by tomorrow if the models don't change it's like 95%.
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For me a win is any accumulating snow even an inch. Thats how not good I feel about this setup even though Im slightly NW of I95. Still time for changes but not likely.
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I dont remember the exact storm but has a very similar feel to a storm that happened in winter 2018 where the city and SE was rain as precip came in, 3 hours of non accumulating wet snow immediately NW of I95 and it was like in the teens in the HV with snow to ice. The gradient at the surface could be intense but honestly everyone is going to have trouble holding onto snow with the mid level low track.
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This is just not a good setup for CAD near the coast. Honestly a GLC is better than this for CAD. A low sitting to our south with a strong SE wind coming off the ocean for hours as precip is just moving in, yuck.
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Look at soundings not snow maps. At best it's sleet and not rain north of the city after a few inches of snow.
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I almost miss those storms even though snow to ice to rain is sorta of depressing. However I remember those storms in the 90s having much colder airmass at onset. This storm is starting at best upper 20s-30 in the metro area. Those storms used to start in the teens.
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12z Euro is actually pretty good for a large part of the NW crew. I think for them it depends how long the primary holds on and how far west the mid level lows track in terms of snow vs slop. The coast needs a miracle.
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Euro is a little better but still far from cutting it for the city. Sharp cutoff about 1 inch for me and 4 inches 5 miles to my north.
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I think we need this to be faster and more progressive. The longer the low is over land with onshore flow and east wind is going to warm the surface. The city is now already above freezing when precip starts on most models and going straight to rain. Interior will get a thump but want it coming in fast and heavy for more than a few hours of heavy snow to ice/rain scenario inland.
