HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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As always with these storms want to pay attention to what happens near DC and Philly. Although they are actually favored in this scenario due to being more inland if its snowing good in those places its usually a sign NYC will see front end snow.
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Its colder than it was supposed to be at this hour. Dewpoints also low. Im not expecting big surprises but NYC starting snow is looking more likely than not.
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12Z GFS says yes but a day later 12Z CMC says yes 12Z Euro says no Going to be a long week of model tracking
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The warmth will really ramp when they get strong, 5-10 mph won't do much anywhere other than immediate ocean but once SE wind strengthens its game over.
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Yea you can see the impact of the east wind right now so longitude will make a difference here. Not sure quite for NYC but easily could see Newark getting an inch.
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Yes thats why I said I95 on NW. Long Island beaches will go straight to rain.
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Yes what a bomb on the 24th. So now every model is showing some kind of bomb between the 22nd and 24th timeframe.
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I think if you are in a location that usually deals with ice the ice potential is real. I have a hard time believing with temps at 10 degrees right now inland that it will go above 32 before 7 am tomorrow (again speaking for usual CAD Locations (Sussex, Western Orange, Ulster).
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Not that it really matters but the models are finally picking up on just how cold it really is. Now looks like maybe a few hours of snow at onset I95 on NW.
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GFS still has no interest in next weekend but honestly I'd rather the models leaning east at this range.
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GFS OTS, CMC a foot and a half of snow for next weekend. Going to be another long week of model following.
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Its definitely been a frustrating storm to track but definitely not one of the worst, been pretty clear since about 5-6 days out this was not our storm. Anytime the models are showing a strong Miller A storm like this with precip type issues 5 days out you know you're in trouble.
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Syracuse and Rochester may have precip type issues, thats how crazy far west tomorrows storm is tracking.
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I have to say that 18Z GFS run made me forget about how miserable tomorrows storm is going to be.
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It honestly looks more long duration than tomorrows storm so if we get a hit out of this it could be a homerun but not getting my hopes up yet.
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I dont want to underestimate but its usually not that destructive except maybe the immediate coast of LI./
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As many predicted GFS way west looks great verbatim but hope we don't get dejavu to this weekend.
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I'd be worried about icing in the HV west of the Hudson and especially north of 84. If mid and upper levels really warming up that fast we know the cold may hold on longer in those spots in the lower levels plus really cold ground from this weekend.
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NAM basically says you have to be in the catskills to get more than an inch of snow. What a waste of cold air region wide. I can't remember an airmass this cold where there wasn't at least some front end snow for a large part of the subforum.
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Agree but high is in a great position right now. But we know that can change in a week.
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Hard to believe the southern MA is going to get smoked twice in a month (although not impossible). But definitely think this one may come NW.
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Next weekend looks a little better on the Euro. Given the trend of the winter for storms to trend NW I kind of like the spot it's in right now.
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Lucked out on one storm intensifying enough to get 6+ inches, too bad it rained and was gone two days later.
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Ride the NAM at this range.
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Bizzare winter so far, first we have 60 and then a foot of snow for ACY the next day. Now we have highs in the teens today and rain the next day.
