HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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lol the gfs hasn't been that bad lately.....
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That is a hard pack that wont be melting anytime soon
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It would make me feel a little more confident if the gfs came on board but it's not crucial at this stage.
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Thats a real nice looking setup for 120 hours out.
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Its out of range too. I am not sure if this is the right thinking but I actually am sort of hoping this gets squashed because I think it may allow the next system to come more up the coast.
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Lets hope we get a hit because those temps on bare ground would be so depressing imo.
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The low on the Euro stalls in a great spot and temps in low 20s throughout storm so agree totals would be higher than those 10:1 maps even show verbatim.
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Even a coastal hugger is probably a sleetstorm, this airmass is even colder than yesterdays I think and we saw how the storm yesterday overperformed even cutting inland. Look how far SE the Euro has snow/sleet even with a track near the BM.
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Precip type not really a concern unless this cuts inland like yesterday which is doubtful. It's so cold we could probably survive a track inside the BM so at this point its really mostly a hit or no hit.
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I sort of disagree. The Euro showing two straight runs with a hit at this range is a very good sign. I am not sure when the gfs became the best model but either way the fact it runs four times a day leaves more room for variation. Yesterday the gfs basically lost this storm entirely on some runs and was showing a bomb on Monday on some runs.
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Right now only the NAM and to a lesser extent the gfs are showing the anafrontal snow. Low probability at this time but definitely could be a sneaky event though to keep an eye on.
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Glad this overperformed up there for the most part. Thinking of taking a drive, is there anywhere in the HV region closest to the city that has the most snow?
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CMC, GFS both kind of close but OTS.
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Yep CMC also has the Friday Night/Saturday storm but also a close miss to the SE.
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mix here as well but now mostly rain and winds really starting to pick up.
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No just eyeballed about an inch. It's not really consequential snow at this point as its 34 but just surprised it's still snowing.
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I keep waiting for a changeover so I can move on from this storm and it keeps staying snow. Must mean the upper levels are still good which should bode well for people to the north.
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Current Temps JFK 38 LGA 34 Central Park 33 Newark 33 HPN 32
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Im not sure how accurate it is but it seems based on reports and radars the rain/snow line is the east river. We all know that warm push is coming soon from Long Island.
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Still snowing, I'm honestly surprised it's hanging on this long.
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I mean I didnt like this setup at all tbh but the numbers speak for themselves its busting positive in DC, Philadelphia and NYC. I can't tell you if it will bust positive up north because of the sleet factor.
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Yes this is how I am seeing things too. It started snow here almost two hours ago and has been basically all snow.
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How much qpf did it have at this time? Temps look accurate but seems the precip came in a little earlier.
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Yep once the flakes get really large you know it's about to flip. So far still mainly snow here although I think I've heard a few rain drops mixed in.
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I think its ok to acknowledge this was a little colder than modeled? I think everyone realizes this is mostly going as scheduled.
