HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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I'd say about 50/50 for this one now. Euro having a hit 3 straight runs (big hit last two) is nothing to ignore. However the fact none of the other models have shown an actual hit is still a bit concerning.
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Euro holds serve.
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Anafrontal Passage Rain/Snow Threat 1/19/2022-1/20/2022
HVSnowLover replied to HVSnowLover's topic in New York City Metro
Euro still not really showing anything for this which actually worries me a bit because if it's wrong about this I wonder if it may be wrong about the follow up storm. -
Yes hope they are all trending toward the Euro as opposed to all finding a consensus that the Euro will now join.
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Ukie/CMC/GFS all about the same right now. Hopefully Euro holds serve and doesn't trend to the others.
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Real nice pattern it seems, lots of cold and lots of action in the gulf.
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I think the GFS is still confused and playing catchup and the Sat, Sun, and Mon event consolidate into one big storm.
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GFS/NAM/CMC now all have at least some rain/snow for the region.
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CMC has some snow Thursday morning too.
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Lets get the models to agree on a storm, then we can worry about mixing.
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GFS coming west, agree won't be all this way this run.
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GFS/NAM now both on board for Thursday morning frontal passage event.
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The CMC definitely has a storm, it's weak and surpressed but dumps over 6 inches into Virginia so to me thats a storm.
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Yes definitely agree with that I'd rather have 2-4 of all snow than 2-4 washed away by rain but i'd probably rather have 2-4 washed away by rain then all dry and cold unless there already is a snowpack in place.
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Agree the CMC is not very far from dumping snow onto LI.
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I'd agree at this point I'd lean no snowstorm as well. If Euro holds it's solution at 0Z and/or any other models come on board at 0Z my confidence would go up a lot though.
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When I was young I used to agree. Now Im looking for excitement I guess so I'd take snow to rain over cold and frigid.
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Why would we trust the GFS setup over the Euro at this juncture though? Also the GFS does show a potential east coast storm it's just a day later.
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Lets hope Euro is right because if the wave GFS is focused on ends up becoming our storm that low over the great lakes may cause us precip type problems.
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Seems to me the GFS is splitting the two energies while Euro is consolidating them and bringing it up the coast.
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Don't think this gfs run will get it done...
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Also have to think about the pattern. Right now I'd take my chances with amped over surpressed. Normally I wouldn't say that anywhere near the coast but this cold air in the next few weeks is strong. Of course it depends a bit on Location, overamped got me an inch yesterday the ACY blizzard I didn't see a flake. However I realize for places like South Shore of LI and NJ coast it was the opposite.
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Being on the northern fringe can be equally painful to track...... Hopefully its far enough NW where the city is not on the NW edge.
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It did well with the last storm which was also a Miller A coming up but this one is further east so I get it's different.
