HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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Boston gets heavy rain on CMC. Honestly almost looks like a further east version of the storm two weekends ago.
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Yes I'd like to west trend to halt now.....
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I mean being scared of a weather outcome I get is a bit extreme but I more meant I don't know which way I prefer this trending. It is still kind of early but now we are inside 5 days where things start to get a bit more serious and the models have been promising enough since 0Z last night that I feel if it ends up with a big shift there will be lot of dissapointment.
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The models haven't been that bad this winter, I think by 12Z Wed we can have some confidence but sure nothing is comfortable until the storm arrives lol.
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I think OTS is the bigger threat than rain still but this doesn't feel like either of the last two threats. In other words it feels there are still many options on the table and I am not sure whether to be more scared of an east or west trend at this point.
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GGEM is faster and 30 mb weaker at our latitude than 12Z so probably a lot more realistic. Also it's so far west that NYC east mixes but honestly its the western outlier right now so still more worried about OTS than mixing.
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Looks like it will be similar to 12Z.
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Eh the Canadian is not that powerful of a model although certainly it being close to holding serve would be nice. I'd actually feel better if the Euro at least matched the 0Z GFS.
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Def more snow already from this than from the anafront event.
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Honestly snowing decent out and I didn't even know it was going to snow. In some ways these events are more enjoyable than tracking the giant storms all week.
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Agree totally.
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Think im ready for a pattern change since this so called great pattern is yielding nothing if next weeks storm is a miss. Cold and dry is frustrating.
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Honestly pretty good run to run consistency for this far out last 4 runs of the gfs. Sadly this is looking like another wide right but still some time for changes.
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Too soon to say tonight makes or break imo. Remember the GFS did have a run yesterday that was a big hit but by tomorrow 12Z we want to see at least more than one model on board or else it's starting to feel like dejavu another OTS miss.
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Euro still OTS
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Still sticking with at least 2 models have to show a hit in same cycle before I get too interested, so CMC on it's own isn't going to excite me.
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Ukie looks west but nothing like the CMC.
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CMC is a HECS and then some, record breaker for the entire immediate metro area.
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Agree. Also would like to see two models actually show a hit during the same cycle to feel this thing has more of a chance. I will say both of the last two storms the majority of models did not look favorable by inside 5 days I think by Monday we may have a better sense of where this is going.
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It looks similar to 12z up through about hour 168 and then gets hooked north. I guess this is the capture people are referencing?
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GFS is a funny model but honestly has probably been the most accurate one this winter so who knows...
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CMC develops it late for our area. I do have fairly high confidence a significant storm will happen somewhere along the east coast next weekend (just as it has the past two weekends). Just don't know where yet.
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I agree although its not even that cold next weekend so climo would argue this could come further north.
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We've had strong storm signals two weekends in a row and both failed so I don't think people are going to be too excited until multiple models agree on a storm hitting us within 96 hours.
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Gonna be OTS for our area this run but at this point all that matters is strong storm signal still there. Would be wild and also painful if NC/Virgina coast get another snowstorm.
