HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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The storm late next week seems to be trending colder and looks like cold after it so I am not seeing this giant pattern change I've been hearing about.
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I think seeing that 6Z NAM run and then seeing the ones after was deflating honestly. This is definitely a nailbiter for our area.
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Yea but Ukie was already far east and RAP is out of range. My post wasn't really a give up post but more the constant model shifting back and forth is exhausting. I could see this overperforming easily for NYC Metro but could also see it busting badly so it's basically nowcast time.
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I see basically everything shifted east again at 12Z, at this point im honestly exhausted tracking this one. We know it will snow, how much we don't know. If it hits good it hits, if it doesn't it doesn't.
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I think the 0Z runs tonight are the 2 minute warning.
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I don't think people are saying no ratios but to assume about 12:1 ratios, maybe more like 15:1 on the western fringe of the decent snow.
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How can you tell when it is closing off?
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Sorry I deleted my post because I realize it probably wasn't necessary. 6+ is a nice storm but it is a bit painful when you have a low this strong and 24 inches is so close.
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As many have stated due to the winds kuchera is way overdone but still a mammoth storm for Eastern LI into SNE.
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Any improvement for NYC?
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Given how far NW they've now extended Watches they must think ratios will be pretty good on the Western edge.
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50 miles west and the majority of the subforum would erupt.
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It is encouraging that some of our most well respected posters think the potential here is still greater than what the surface reflections on models are currently showing.
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Ticks west to me. Still not that excited until I see any models throwing an inch of liquid back to the city but pretty confidence we are getting a storm.
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I have a different take in terms of Juno because I lived in the Mid Hudson Valley and got 12 inches from that storm. Thats not going to happen this time around unfortunately.
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The cutoff on the NAM is painful.
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Pretty much every model now outside of the gfs which is in la la land has about the same solution roughly. I know people want to see the big snows but I think it's sorta unlikely west of Suffolk county but it's close enough where I am definitely giving it until the 0Z runs tonight.
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It's even slightly improved over 0Z.
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Im waiting on the 0Z suite tonight before even trying to predict totals, This forecast is very complicated.
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12Z CMC a little east of 0Z but not that different.
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Models still showing a pretty sharp cutoff just NW of NYC but historically it's rare for a storm to drill NYC and significant snow not to make it to at least I287 as there is usually a band on the NW edge of the good stuff.
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Yea I've seen so many posters saying why the winds will make this not super high ratio and the 12:1 ratios seem reasonable way to forecast this, maybe higher well inland if enough precip gets there.
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GFS I think has to give in a bit at 12z? Doesn't it? I'm not expecting a big storm anymore but pretty much every other model agrees now it won't be a total non event.
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I have to say looking at next week is taking my excitement away from the potential weekend storm a bit, if it was going to be something historic it's still exciting but if it's run of the mill storm that will be gone by next Wed it's not that exciting.
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The NAM is all over the place so even if we did get nam'd I wouldn't take it that seriously but it would probably give this forum a lift.
