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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    Actually I looked at the track a bit more closely. That track and strength on the CMC and GFS should be mostly snow from roughly I80 latitude and north of there changing to snow for everyone as the storm progresses.
  2. HVSnowLover
    Seems to start a little inside the benchmark which is a problem for NYC and points south. Also the airmass is mariginal. It will flip to snow everywhere but is this a mostly rain/white rain to 1-2 inches backend deal or a bombing out something bigger deal is the uncertainty.
  3. HVSnowLover
    It might be mostly snow but it's going to be white rain for a while near the coast. I'll admit the models are sorta all over the place with this so I still don't know if it could surprise but without much cold air I usually lean climo.
  4. HVSnowLover
    Seems the same story every storm the past two winters. A nothing event at the immediate coast, a nuisance event just inland, and big snows NW of I287.
  5. HVSnowLover
    Yea after enough tracking you kind of know the difference between a few models run show significant snow potential vs this actually has real potential to deliver a significant snowfall. I will say though the way the last two winters have gone even 1-3/2-4 inch events are becoming rare enough to be exciting.
  6. HVSnowLover
    If it's an upcoming real significant snow threat (historic storm) I get staying up for the tracking part but a storm like this nah.
  7. HVSnowLover
    Not just the city. Southern Westchester, CT Coast, and NE NJ left out as well. The new I95 is I287.
  8. HVSnowLover
    I mean it's been like 2 winters like this but yes I287 does seem to be the coastline now. Anywhere southeast of there may as well be in the ocean (from a weather perspective).
  9. HVSnowLover
    A Euro/GFS scenario verbatim is probably more realistically 1-3 inches on colder surfaces for NYC. There would be some decent snow likely on the back end but it would warm and rainy for a while.
  10. HVSnowLover
    I haven't followed this super closely but seems models are way apart on this so don't know what to think. I know most storms end up north and amped but the RGEM/CMC being so surpressed makes me question it.
  11. HVSnowLover
    Always more hope when you need a north trend then a south one but verbatim would be a real nice winter week for DC/Baltimore.
  12. HVSnowLover
    That's what happens when it never goes above freezing during the storm.
  13. HVSnowLover
    Amazing how much more wintry it feels when it's snow or sleet falling even if it's light compared to when it's zr.
  14. HVSnowLover
    Light sleet/snow mix now.
  15. HVSnowLover
    Almost all models still show a bit more snow later from NYC on NW with around an inch more Westchester on north.
  16. HVSnowLover
    Dry but definitely more wet/north than 0Z.
  17. HVSnowLover
    It's 30 here now. Can tell the difference between 20s and 30s with ZR, when it was in the 20s it was icing a lot and now it's mostly wet/slush.
  18. HVSnowLover
    I don't have much interest in tracking an inverted trough, they are always very localized and hard to predict. Hopefully the coastal comes west like other storms. Would definitely favor LI/SNJ with this one but maybe everyone can get a few inches of all snow to wrap up the week.
  19. HVSnowLover
    I don't want to complain about a snow/frozen event but this storm has been meh. The snow rates were putrid and now it's slush with some icing.
  20. HVSnowLover
    The NAM/RGEM both seem close to the coast and juicy for Friday. I know both models are not good at this range but they were also amped with the current storm before the others.
  21. HVSnowLover
    This is true, the main details aren't really changing, just some small waffles. This has gone probably from a 1-3 inch event yesterday to a 2-4 inch event area wide today. Someone probably gets 5 in the subforum but almost everyone will get 2-4.
  22. HVSnowLover
    The models seem to rarely account for the North shore vs South shore differences on LI and just make the whole eastern half green. I could see more of a west vs east gradient here as opposed to north vs south but still think north shore of Suffolk is in an ok spot to stay mostly snow/frozen.
  23. HVSnowLover
    Yes LI will definiutely have a hard time staying snow in this setup and probably all of the island goes to plain rain briefly but could still be a typical 4 inch north shore 1 inch south shore scenario.
  24. HVSnowLover
    Temps don't seem to ever go above freezing on the Euro NW of around Central Queens. Could definitely see 34 and rain at JFK for a short time while 30 and ZR/Sleet CPK and LGA but I still think it's mostly snow for CPK and LGA.
  25. HVSnowLover
    Might be trending toward 4-6 in places along or just NW of I95 if they can get heavier precip and stay all snow.
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