HVSnowLover
-
Posts
2,952 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by HVSnowLover
-
I know this is an odd take but I also don't see what is so bad about sleet and freezing rain. They are pretty especially on top of a snowpack and I haven't really found them to do that much damage but I guess others have had different experiences.
-
Seems to show a 2 wave scenario, at hour 60 the freezing line reaches the edge of the city and then the ice gets cranking. Either way I agree the whole run looks weird and I'd toss.
-
Yep NAM still not backing down on the amped/warm solution but still a little beyond its best range.
-
Makes sense to be conservative at this point.
-
This is basically what i've started doing. The Euro use to be pretty reliable but I don't trust any model individually anymore so I just average what they all show.
-
It did verbatim but was significantly north with the really severe icing of what had it had been showing in previous runs. Yesterday it was showing heavy icing down to SNJ, this run has it basically starting NYC on north.
-
Back to the storm I'd be curious to see the 0Z runs and tomorrows 12z runs as it's getting into more serious so to speak. The 18z GFS was a big shift I think toward what we'd expect climo wise but the fact the Euro came so far SE at 12z makes this feel very up in the air right now.
-
Yes this! Honestly this would be my argument for not having the HV in the same subforum as NYC because the winter climo of anywhere north and west of I287 is drastically different than NYC metro and southeast even though the closest point of I287 is like 25 miles from midtown.
-
I think thats unlikely in this scenario. This isn't going to be a case where NYC is 33 and rain. Either the storm track is further north and NYC is in the 40s/50s or its further south and falling into the 20s. This isn't a normal setup for our region, the winds coming out of the north will mitigate the ocean effect.
-
This is an unusual scenario where its not about holding surface cold in as much as how far south and fast the cold air can come.
-
CMC still hanging onto a much warmer solution than the gfs
-
12Z GFS is a frightening look for NYC Metro, over an inch of liquid of ice.
-
Initially yes but the main storm is way north and warm on the NAM.
-
Sleet is probably the best outcome here, if there is snow left out ahead of this storm it will cement it to make sure it lasts throughout Feburary.
-
That does seem to be what the 18Z GFS is trying to do. Right now I'd disregard it until it has more support.
-
Also the places that really got shafted by the last storm have the best chance of getting frozen precip this time around although I realize no one really wants ice or sleet. The Ukie/GFS would be really nice for the I84 crew.
-
I wouldn't really consider the last storm a miss but I guess its all perspective.
-
Euro is similar to CMC. Non event south of I84.
-
Thats why its so nice to live in a place like Boston, you can get whacked from a coastal and then whacked from an overrunning event like this all in the same week.
-
At 12Z on Friday the GFS has NYC at 25 while the CMC has NYC at 50 so thats quite a spread.......
-
The Ukie seems closer to the GFS than the CMC so it will be interesting to see which camp the Euro joins at 12z.
-
I think we just keep have to follow the track of the low and placement/strength of high, that should ultimately tell the story in terms of precip types.
-
Im always a little skepitcal when the models are showing something that climo wise almost never happens. I sort of agree with this will end up either mostly snow or mostly rain camp near the coast although I can see with the high placement how the setup the models are showing makes sense but wouldn't really take it that seriously beyond 72 hours. If the warmer scenario happens I could definitely see crippling icing in the climo spots of Sullivan, Ulster, Passaic and Orange counties.
-
CMC warmer than GFS, brutal icing interior, rain for the coast. Possibly more realistic but will depend on storm track rather than cold air bleeds south before the storm ends or not.
-
It may be overdone for 0Z GFS is a pretty brutal icestorm for almost the whole subforum.
