HVSnowLover

Seems reasonable in terms of where the farthest extent of the ZR would get while any meaningful precip is left.

Yes but I would expect the 50s to be more so up to Central NJ and maybe south shore of LI. We'll see though. Either way no ones snowpack south of I84 is probably surviving this storm.

52 in HPN and 28 in Pou is quite a sharp gradient. Ukie has looked similar too with how warm it gets but I think these two models are overdone with the warm push.

I mean geographically they are right that an ice storm is NYC is very very very rare, thats why I didn't really trust when the guidance was showing big icing to the city (I know some guidance still is showing mild icing in the city).

RGEM/NAM now look like almost all rain for the city. Looks like the freezing line makes it to around the Bronx/Westchester border at it's southernmost point with precip.

The changeover seems to still be around the same time every run but it seems to have gotten drier in terms of qpf after the changeover so agree with you its becoming more liquid less frozen.

GFS not really backing down, got to admire if nothing else has persistent it's been.

I think 12Z Friday which is I think 8 am is the key hour as the bulk of the remaining liquid falls between 12Z and 18Z (8 am and 2 pm). If the models that have the city flipping to ice close to that hour are right it will get real nasty. If it doesn't flip until significantly later it probably will be a more minor event.

Agree as I said earlier it should be mostly gone by Friday morning within the city unfortunately. LI maybe should have a flood watch as they have a deeper pack.

Too much uncertainty when it is not clear if 1 inch of rain will be in liquid form or frozen form.

Yes temp at 28 for hours would be a big problem. No model showing this for NYC Metro right now except GFS. Even the NAM which usually picks up on this kind of situation well is pretty warm so I'm just basing off current guidance. Also what I'm reacting to is the models starting to show more of that classic SW to NE freezing line as opposed to North to South. I am not ignoring this could change and become more of a threat for NYC and is already a significant threat for Northern Westcher, Rockland, and Orange Counties.

Yea its definitely a tricky forecast but I am sorta ignoring the GFS because it's on it's own and going with a Euro/CMC/Ukie blend which would have NYC/LI well in the 40s with lots of rain tomorrow night before this possible ice threat even happens.

I said in the city, different world outside of the city.

I don't think that happens in the city especially Manhattan. North and West is different world. Outer boroughs maybe but probably has to be below 32 for a sustained period of time.

Honestly 0.2 qpf of ice during daytime after heavy rain is going to be nothing for NYC Metro. The only scenario that would be a real ice storm for NYC is if GFS is right.

I would agree HPN to about SWF is going to be the real danger zone here. North of there more sleet/snow, south of there minimal frozen precip.

Daytime 40 is one thing, two straight nights above freezing and tomorrow night with rain and approaching 50 is another. Although out on LI there is so much it probably won't be all gone but in the five boroughs i'd expect very little left on Friday morning.

The temp spead for NYC at 12Z on Friday on the four major models at this range. GFS- 28 Euro- 33 CMC- 49 Ukmet- 55 Don't think I've seen a spread like that two days out before an event.

Euro actually doesn't crash and warms the area back up to 35 at 18z.

That snowpack may be gone by Friday morning especially if the warmer models are right and we have consecutive nights in the 40s.

Euro continues to keep the freezing line just NW of the city and it's mainly rain event for I95

Very good point, if the cold is coming from the northwest it will take a lot longer to reach the metro area than if its coming out of the north.

Agree and it would also be following warmth and rain especially closer to the coast which I would think would also reduce accretion somewhat.

GFS also looks like a two wave scenario with the 2nd one offshore late Friday.

GFS looks like it won't be backing down this run.