HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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The storm and pattern aren't particularly cold so the sleet to the coast scenario is still questionable but if the high is in the right position that could do it.
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The euro actually got a lot more progressive with suprisingly little liquid overall.
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I don't think this is a NYC snowstorm by any means but a front end thump is definitely possible with lingering frozen precip in or near the city because of the high.
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Not that verbatim maps matter this far out but Bronx/Manhattan change over at 12z at that time an inch of liquid has already fallen.....
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The mid levels actually seem pretty warm but the surface is a lot colder, I guess picking up on strength of the high?
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12Z CMC is a big sleet/freezing rain storm for most
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Its nice to have a model showing snow all the way down to SNJ because that means theres some wiggle room for the models to meet in the middle with this.
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GFS not only didnt back down but actually went colder this run. Still very early with tracking this one, in my view we've moved from pregame to basically the first quarter at this point.
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The Euro is actually a good si Even the further south models right now are not surpressed for our region which is why the threat of a miss SE seems pretty low right now. Of course still a long way to go.
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It does cut but still somehow dumps 6+ snow about 30 miles north of the city on north.
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12Z Euro delivers especially north of the city but came a good bit south with accumulating snow compared to 0Z.
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I believe there will definitely be a storm but not clear yet if and how it will impact our region.
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Might be early to open a storm thread although agree it would separate topics more.
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Agree love these airmass clash storms although love them most when on the right side of the gradient.
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Agree def more worried about this one being too warm then surpressed so I like seeing accumulating snow line go further south of the city.
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The 12z runs delayed the storm by about 12 hours but are colder so far, strong CAD signature, Im guessing slower allows the cold to dig in more before the storm?
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I'll do you one better at least for north of NYC https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022021718&fh=210&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc&m=gfs
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I need to stop looking at the models, they are too exciting for late next week.
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If NYC gets about another 5 inches they'd be above season average so if the March pattern is similar to the winter NYC should be fine. NW of the city it's been a lousy winter.
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Thats wild. That looks way more like typical April gradient than a February one.
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Not necessarily if it's in the 20s at 9 am.
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I know we are all enjoying the warmth but CMC, Euro, and GFS all have snow from Central NJ north for next Friday. Winter is not over yet.
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This storm for next Friday is showing up on basically every run of every model and it's coming across the country so not likely it will just dissapear but the question is if it's going to be a wintry event or a cutter that changes the pattern.
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I am definitely a believer that global warming is real and concerning but this winter is probably not a great example since we've been in the icebox for the mostpart basically since the start of January.
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Agree totally. I remember a storm March 18 2013 the city was supposed to be brief snow changing to rain and the city overperformed a lot because it was a cold airmass at the start.
